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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • oilgas66 oilgas66 May 14, 1998 11:01 AM Flag

    Old News - But it's coming true.

    TALKING POINT - API data show gasoline demand
    high

    REUTER POLL FORECAST* ACTUAL FOR
    FOR
    WEEK ENDED 04/24/98 WEEK ENDED 04/24/98-CHANGE

    ------------------------------------------------------------
    CRUDE............ UP 2.04 MLN 343.04 UP 2.21

    DISTILLATE....... UNCH 121.50 DN 831,000
    GASOLINE......... DN
    1.375 MLN 211.06 DN 1.18
    UTILIZATION...... DN 0.5
    (PCT PT) 14. 90 DN 262,000

    *NB - The forecast
    is derived by polling at least six
    market
    analysts/traders, omitting the high and low forecast and

    averaging.

    NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Gasoline
    futures rose in
    after-hours trading on the NYMEX
    immediately after the Tuesday
    afternoon release of
    slightly bullish statistics from the
    American
    Petroleum Institute.
    The API results came in largely in
    line with market
    predictions, but the fact that
    they showed refinery crude runs
    down 262,000
    barrels per day (bpd) gave some assurance to
    traders
    that problems reported at U.S. oil refineries will

    continue to draw down the large surplus of crude oil
    stocks at
    the onset of the summer driving season.

    Gasoline after-hours trading at 1749 EDT/2149 GMT was up
    36
    points to 52.55 cents per gallon on the May
    contract. It had
    traded as high as $53.05 per gallon
    earlier.
    "The numbers looked a little constructive to
    the gasoline
    market," said Tom Ritterbusch of
    Sweeney Oil. "We saw the East
    Coast reformulated
    stocks down. That should support gasoline
    but
    everything else was in line with expectations."
    Another
    analyst, Nizam Sharief of Hornsby & Co, agreed.
    "The
    gasoline inventory decline was pretty much in line

    with what was anticipated," Sharief said. "For
    gasoline, the
    (API statistics) are slightly bullish.
    For heating oil, they
    are neutral at the moment.
    For crude, they are neutral, even
    though there is
    a build."
    The 2.21 million-barrel build in U.S.
    crude oil stocks was
    discounted, analysts said.
    They said the lower crude import
    level as reported
    by the API will help draw down on the

    near-saturated storage levels for crude, especially in PADD 2,

    the U.S. Midwest, which includes storage facilities
    at the
    Cushing, Oklahoma pipeline hub.
    But
    the strength in gasoline in more closely related to

    refinery problems, analysts and traders said.

    "Clearly, some refinery problems and (gasoline) demand

    expectations show us we're going to eat into that gasoline

    overhang pretty quick," a trader said.
    Sharief said
    two major refineries on the East Coast are

    experiencing problems with fluid catalytic cracking units,

    which are central to the production of gasoline. These
    problems
    and also Tuesday's shutdowns of Los
    Angeles-area refineries
    after a power outage, give traders
    hints that gasoline stocks
    may be down and
    therefore futures prices may rise just as
    demand for
    the summer driving season increases.
    A trader
    said that implied gasoline demand is now 8.5

    million bpd, up 145,000 bpd on the week.
    He said most
    analysts expect an increase in gasoine demand
    to rise
    1- to 2-percent from a year ago, but he suggested
    the
    rise will actually be nearer to 3 percent
    based on the strong
    U.S. economy, higher demand for
    airline tickets and America's
    appetite for
    gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles.

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