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Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • lovedavidtsui lovedavidtsui Aug 16, 2009 11:23 AM Flag

    Back to $11 by Wendesday!

    Got a new drug coming directly competing with VNDA's, can't imagine if it cuts VNDA's future revenue to half. Yet dead money here.

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    • fecko_the_trading_monkey fecko_the_trading_monkey Aug 17, 2009 12:15 AM Flag

      It's a huge market ($27 billion) so any Pharmacuetical Co without a toe in the water will happily buy into a sure thing. Several existing competatitors are up to their ears in law suits because they display side effects not typified by Fanapt.

      Trade short at your own peril

      • 1 Reply to fecko_the_trading_monkey
      • <<It's a huge market ($27 billion)>>

        A little smaller than huge. $3B. You weren't even close!

        Be aggressive with your research. It was weak.
        weak get steamrolled every time!!! lol


        The reality of the matter is that the market opportunity for Fanapt at this point in time is actually much smaller than $20 billion. First of all Fanapt is only approved in the U.S. and the U.S. market opportunity for atypical antipsychotics was approximately $12.8 billion in 2008.

        Secondly, all of the other atypical antipsychotics are approved for marketing in multiple CNS disorders like the bipolar disorders or depression. At this point in time, iloperidone is only approved for use in schizophrenia. Cowen and Company estimate that schizophrenia accounts for “approximately 50%” of the broader antipsychotic market (atypical and typical antipsychotic agents).

        Off-label usage of Fanapt in bipolar and the other CNS disorders is likely to some small extent but Fanapt’s current label indicating it only for second-line schizophrenia cuts down the on-label market opportunity to $6.4 billion if the usage of atypical antipsychotics in schizophrenia is at roughly the same 50% rate as the usage of all antipsychotics in schizophrenia. (source: Cowen and Company)

        Vanda has indicated in the past that Fanapt will be competing among the 50% of atypical antipsychotic users that end up switching their therapy due to ineffectiveness or side effect issues like weight gain. If this second-line schizophrenia indication represents 50% of the atypical antipsychotic market opportunity in the U.S. as Vanda suggests then that means that the market potential for Fanapt in the U.S. will be $6.4b*0.50= $3.2 billion

    • My gosh let's hope it goes lower. I'm not short but I would like to see Vanda or Fanapt get bought. At current valuations, there is not much left for the buyer in my opinion. This thing is just too pricey right now. It seems shareholders are imagining ahead of time the worth of Fanapt AFTER it's purchase by Big Pharma, not before. Big Pharma won't be interested unless there is something in it for them. Sheeesh.

    • your full of shit

    • could be lower.

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