220 prescriptions in first six weeks seems very strong . . . .
In the last three years, revenue has been $31M, $33M, and $34M. Analyst consensus is $45M, implying about $10M expected from Hetlioz. At $84,000 per patient per year, that's 120 patient years of therapy or 240 patient half years of therapy. Of course there will be discounts, prescriptions that don't get filled due to lack of reimbursement, patients who drop off after one or two prescriptions etc. That said, 120 patient years of therapy is 1,440 filled prescriptions. 220 prescriptions in 6 weeks, 110 of which have been reimbursed and filled, when you need 1,440 filled prescriptions to meet analyst consensus seems, like a very strong start!
Disrupted sleep is a big deal and people will go to great lengths for relief . . . ask Michael Jackson! But you raise a good question which is will payers pay $84,000 per year, or some significant portion of that for this niche population . . . remains to be seen. The fact that 120 or 220 prescriptions have been filled in the first six weeks provides some early evidence.