That's only a guess since I don't have any more information than anybody else. However, every day that passes without some strange or bizarre press release relating to not much improves the chances.
For sure nobody's selling. I placed a platoon of bids today up through 6.52 and got nothing. But with volume at 12,656 and average volume at 23,710 there'll certainly be a lurch of some kind next week or sooner.
It will be hard for them to post impressive numbers with unemployment so high. I just don't see it.
Company is still solid though. Only major driver of the stock price would be a re-start of the buyback program (smart thing to do).
Hopefully no more cost cutting measures by O'Donnell. Give it a rest already.
I put the value at 6.84 per share as I did back in October (pat myself on the back), but considering the current economic climate, I can see it trading below that from now until the next earnings announcement.
In summary, expect a drop after earnings are released.
Yes, I think your 6.84 is in the ball park based on present information. With respect to the post-earnings price move it's difficult to get a sense of investor expectations with DAVE. There are probably a lot of people who have been sitting on dead money here for a while and wouldn't take much encouragement to sell if the call disappoints.
On the other hand, DAVE's cap is so small, and so few shares change hands every day, anything, positive or negative, could move it 5-10-15%. Like you suggest, a new share buyback would be a positive driver.
Therefore, while I agree with you generally on valuation, I think the price after earnings could go either way, depending more on what they say in the call than anything else. The economy, consumer confidence and above all, unemployment is a real problem but at some point it gets baked into investor expectations. I don't know if DAVE is at that point now.