157,874 shares means that somebody was accumulating a lot of shares today. That is more than 6 times the normal volume and the most shares of DAVE trading hands in nearly 6 months. Of course, the price didn't budge, but I think this is an overall positive reaction by Mr. Market to a pretty neutral/expected earnings report.
We've talked about this again and again - the accumulation in the low to mid $7 range. Now the stock has exploded to the upside on huge volume thus far today. I think it's safe to say that there are no more shares between $7-$7.50, we'll see DAVE breach $8 soon.
Yesterday was someone with a much lower basis taking profits after several months of slow growth.
Institutional? At these volumes I doubt institutions are doing any trading in DAVE.
DAVE needs two things to be a big deal again: first, an economy that supports expansion, which FD's has plenty of room and muscle to do; and second, the prying eyes of M&A bankers fronting for a restaurant conglomerate.
And if the conglomerate is smart, it will make its move before the economy makes DAVE grow.
Agreed. More importantly, the stock well towards $6.80 immediately and from there was basically accumulated on heavy volume (for DAVE) all day ...
Bottom line - this stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of about 5 - which is ridiculously cheap for the sector. Just that alone leaves a PE buyout premium of about 30%.
On a FCF basis, with only $5 million of CapEx for 2010, and CFO should come in at over $15 million, that puts FCF for 2010 over $10m. Put a conservative P/FCF multiple of 10 on that and the stock should be trading with a market cap of $100m - which is approximately 50% upside from here.
Therefore, I agree with Feitl - and have read the report, that this stock should be trading at around $9-$10 ($10 is my target, looking at the difference between the two approaches above, $9 is Feitl).