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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

  • romagnaterice romagnaterice Sep 5, 2010 2:13 PM Flag

    DAVE: fair value or good deal ?

    Under certain implausible conditions Dave trades about right. Making no adjustment for interest rates or market sentiment or growth stage, Dave trades within 10-20% of comparable business models on most metrics. Making adjustments for low interest rates, unusual risk aversion and growth/expansion plans the stock price seems to be in low end of range.

    If the above assumptions prove to be correct, i.e. risk-free rate at historical lows and not anticipating the arrival of a deflationary environment; prevalent risk aversion is irrational without additional contraction in domestic production (although understandable given the asset plunges during past 2 years); and finally, Dave is actually in the early stages of a national roll-out and not trying to find a way to turn into a cash-cow. In other words if current price reflects a market positioning itself on the weak side of these binaries and which turn out to be the wrong side, Dave is not in the low end of any range but below the plausible range altogether. Of course, flip one or more of the binaries and the current price is in the high end of the range and possibly above the plausible range. My bet is on the other side of that flip in a world where we see only slight, primarily anecdotal, signs of deflation, gradual but persistent recovery in real private sector activity and most importantly, more Famous Dave's in the dense population centers. If we add in the declining share count, almost-predictable earnings/cash flow, improving balance sheet and, implicitly, a steady hand management Dave is attractive for two reason: exceptionally low risk in the mid 8's and staggering potential upside.

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    • It wouldn't surprise me if half the posters here agree with your bullish assessment of the rib maestro. But try to get in or out of this stock. I've traded a lot of small caps since the financial crisis began and DAVE is among the most difficult to execute a rational plan.

      • 1 Reply to gflango
      • DAVE is just a long spit from the 52-week high. With financial crisis winding down can't imagine DAVE doesn't work its way higher soon. But I'm making no predictions. The price/volume action on DAVE is unimaginably poor so while I remain a strong holder I have no interest in making short-term price predictions. For all the reasons often cited here the future fundamental prospects of this company seem very bright and the share price should respond accordingly.

 
DAVE
28.25+1.23(+4.55%)Dec 18 4:00 PMEST

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