Sterne Agee doesn’t believe weak iPhone 5 demand talk
Shaw Wu, analyst at brokerage Sterne Agee, isn’t buying it.
“We believe there is great confusion with press reports of order cuts and weak demand. From our understanding, the reason is two-fold: (1) much improved yields meaning lower component builds and (2) supplier shifts. As far as we can tell, iPhone 5 demand remains robust,” the analysts wrote Wednesday morning. Sterne Agee has a buy rating on Apple with a price target of $840 a share.
Wu said that based on checks with suppliers, they expect Apple to report in-line revenue and beat earnings per share forecasts driven by iPhone upside when they report on Jan. 23. Guidance, however, is likely to be “vintage conservative,” the analyst wrote.
“ We continue to believe iPhone shipments and gross margin will likely surprise to the upside. We remain comfortable with our forecast looking for 47.5 million units vs. consensus at 46-47 million. Our supply chain checks indicate much improved yields and ramped iPhone 5 capacity as the quarter has progressed. For this reason, we are modeling gross margin of 38.7% vs. expectations of 38.3% and guidance of 36%,” Wu said.
You are probably right that there is at least some truth to the iphone5 rumor. NTE may very well have fewer orders for phone LCM's in Q1 than it did in Q4. However, given that NTE only had $94m in revenues for Q1 of 2012, means even a substantial sequential QoQ drop from Q4 will allow them to post incredible YoY growth. As I'm sure you know, most investors look at YoY comparisons since it factors out seasonality.
Also remember that there will be other quarters after Q1 and other products to come after the iphone5. NTE's 2012 revenues will be around $1.15B. Even with a dramatic QoQ drop off in ihpone5 orders in Q1, I can't see NTE posting Q1 revenues below $350m which would be down from $475m in Q4, but still 270% better than Q1 of 2012. So tell me, if NTE gave the guidance - even though they stopped giving specific revenue guidance some time ago - for 270% YoY growth do you think the stock will sell off?
If there is a supply chain inventory correction occurring, chances are orders will improve after Q1 for phone LCM and chances are NTE will also get orders for one or more new products during the year. If you model quarterly revenues as $350m in Q1, $375m in Q2, $400m in Q3, and $425m in Q4, which seem to me to be on the conservative side, that would have $1.55B of revenue for the year which is 35% growth over 2012.
I try to save him. He should not be investing. This is not the place for him. Will only stop after losses pile up. Being stuid is not a crime. What really makes me mad though is he tries commit fraud by impersonating somebody else. This is a crime.... 50 years in the slammer.... That is if anybody even caredwhat he wrote, which they don't.
P.S. I will never own a pharma company ever in my life. In fact, I will short them all! Remember Merk. Scammers I tell you. All of them. I'm shorting the pharma index right now. The dividends they pay out all all fake. All crooks untill proven innocent. thanks for the pointer krietloc.