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Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. Message Board

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert Jan 23, 2013 5:29 PM Flag

    Interesting from the Apple Call

    In prepared remarks, management said channel inventory of iPhone is 4-6 weeks, in-line with the target range.
    They also said iPad channel inventory is BELOW the target range.
    Perhaps there are order cuts, but based on these remarks from management, certainly would not appear that the most bearish concerns are accurate.
    CEO Tim Cook also suggested to take order cut data points with a grain (or heaping) of salt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Good points, Memory.

      Here's the quote about data points:
      “I’d recommend questioning the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans,” Cook said. “I’d also stress that even if a particular data point were to be factual it would be impossible to interpret what it really means to our business. Our supply chain is very complex and we have multiple sources for our components. Yields can vary, supplier performance can vary. There’s just a long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on.”

      Hagen seems to not get the fact that Nam Tai can just pick up Apple's scraps and still get rich. Apple's needs are so much more than Nam Tai's capacity that any new contract they get could completely fill Nam Tai factories, and we know that Nam Tai is in talks for new products from the last quarterly release. Apple is a river and Nam Tai is a bucket -- the size of the river is not very important in filling up the bucket.

      chan lei ha seems to value things very strangely, expecting only a PE of 6. Nearly 5% dividend, high cash/no debt, high equipment and land value, massive growth (last quarter was triple the previous year's quarter and this one should be at least that as well), and they are building new facilities in Wuxi, with new building to start in Shenzhen does a PE of 6 fit with that?

      Incidentally, Sony's new xperia Z goes on sale in Japan on Feb. 9 and elsewhere shortly after. It has a 5" display from Japan Display. Sony's new tablet was officially announced 2 days ago, the xperia tablet Z, almost the same size as the full size ipad, so it could easily be done on the Wuxi equipment; it's on sale this spring, and is waterproof and the thinnest tablet around at .27" thickness. Strong likelihood that one or both have Nam Tai LCMs. As john mentioned, Koo talked about 5" displays on a previous conference call.

      But, feel free to sell or short it -- I was regretting not buying more on Tuesday.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jaretwilson
      • I bought back 1/2 my position when it dipped below $12. Sold out when the BS started hitting the fan about supply chain issues. Too many day traders pushing this stock around. Down tomorrow, but I would bet that it won't last long. Gonna buy back before earnings.

        People here can't place a valuation on a company if their life depended on it. The sad thing is that their life does depend on it. Some can enjoy freedom that success brings you, and others will toil away at work for a living. It's your choice.

        The good news is that the black hole that Apple was when it came to sucking in capitol is now over. Money is flowing into other tech stocks. Ever since Apple staarted to go down, my other tech stocks are up over 20%. This is good for the over all market.

      • You will have good oppurtunity for buy more shares for cheap tommorow as you say. NTE already down 5% after hour on light trade. Can be down 10%-15 tommorow.

        Just take look at all other EMS for their valuation. Look at JBL, FLEX, and SANM. They all trade at P/E around 10 and forward P/E 6-7. P/S only 0.20 and 0.30. Those company also have more diverse customer base. Less concentrate one type product with LCM like NTE and therefore less risk.

        Eventual I think NTE can earn $2.00-$2.50 per share in 4 quarters. Maybe start from later half this year or in 2014. So think stock can hit $20-$25 eventual.

        But short term still think there lot of risk and stock can go lower after earnings. Maybe as low as $6-$8 if guidance bad. That would be very good oppurtunity for buy. Price you buy in is very important. Just because think future very good for company should not mean you buy at any price.

        Say you buy at $13 now and NTE go to $25 in future. That almost double money and is very good even if fall lot lower in short term. However if wait and it fall $8 before buy then you triple money when it at $25. If lucky enough buy at $6 then you make 4 time money.

    • Oppenheimer reiterates the outlook and talks about new approach to guidance. “We plan to provide a range of guidance that reflects our belief of what we are likely to believe.” This means Apple doesn’t expect to blow away these numbers anymore. It’s significant to note, however, that Apple hasn’t been blowing away these numbers like it used to.

      so the dismal outlook this time is REAL and speaks for itself

      • 2 Replies to hageneriksson
      • Are you thick? Apple and NTE do not have to correlate. If NTE has a huge 4Q, and they will, and 1Q is down only 25%-30% q/q, in-line w/Apple's top-line. But with NTE getting more programs with Apple (probably in 2Q) they can grow even if Apple is flat. Also, as Jaret and others have said, if NTE is indeed doing Sony, that could add some nice juice.

        But please go ahead and short NTE.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You miss the point Hagen. Basically if what we're saying is that Apple treads water, it means that Nam Tai will *only* have 2 billion in sales and make $3.00 a share this year. If Apple were shrinking significantly, I would agree with you about this is bad news for Nam Tai. But let's say Apple had instead reported a 10% growth in unit volume. What would that have meant for Nam Tai? Nothing, since they are still ramping to capacity based upon what Apple already requires. That extra business would have gone elsewhere. These are still huge numbers for Nam Tai with Apple pretty much breaking even.

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