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Lufkin Industries Inc. Message Board

  • Rusty_Wallace_Fans Rusty_Wallace_Fans Sep 18, 2008 3:36 PM Flag

    Is this buying or short covering

    Is today's sudden rise after RTC II proposal news real long buying or were there that many shorts waiting to get squashed like the real cock roaches we kill at night when we turn the light on in our pantry.

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    • IMHO, a combination of both. Read the most recent PR. They don't see any effect from the hurricane on earnings. This must mean they'll probably low-balled this quarters to begin with, so even with the hurricane they'll meet the numbers. $1.60 EPS is the current mean estimate for this quarter, as per management's guidance. Since oil is still well above $80, I'd expect LUFK earnings over the next year to top $6.50 per share. At a mere 15X earnings (and not including the $100 million in cash on the balance sheet), the stock would trade at $95+.

      I'm not even sure why the stock sold off from $95 in the first place. Maybe fear that the hurricane would hit earnings? If so, it goes right back up to $90 after this news.