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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • overdawall overdawall Oct 6, 2008 4:05 PM Flag

    Which would be better?

    or, ( for the half-empty folks )

    which would be worse?

    - Silence.

    - Announcement that dividend will not be paid this quarter, accompanied by a detailed explanation, providing solid reasons, with numbers.

    Numbers! We want numbers!

    "When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind."

    William Thompson, Lord Kelvin

    ( no, we're not at absolute zero quite yet... )

    For me, uncertainty ( silence ) is worse.
    Knowing the detailed reasons, and the NUMBERS!! would be preferable.

    I would very much like to know what others in the group think about this possibly unrealistic and overly simplistic bifurcation.

    C'mon, you can tell _me_, it's just between us chickens!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Anyone still left on the side of "silence is better"??

      Doesn't look like saying nothing has done much for *MY* share price: how about you?

      Speak now, or forever hold your piece of worthless stock?

      Are we having fun yet?

      • 2 Replies to overdawall
      • First, there hasn't been silence. We were told the board was meeting on Monday. We were told, less directly, that the board didn't make a decision on the amount of the dividend. We have also been told that "There will be a dividend."

        Second, I don't think the lack of a press release on RAS' dividend has done anything substantial to the price. People selling has affected the price, and that selling has been killing just about everything in sight, whether or not a dividend was announced. I'm not happy about it, but RAS failure to announce a dividend when we thought it would did not cause the DOW to close at $9258.

        It probably has caused some people who should probably know better to not buy RAS, but most of those same people probably wouldn't have bought anyway in this environment. RAS and the market will bottom and then go up, with or without an immediate dividend announcement.

      • Welcome to the Dark Side, ODW!!!

    • Well hail, it ud be a hole lot better if'n they'd just bust out and say, if they is or if they ain't gonna pay up.

      Dad-blast and dad-burn 'em, what's the holdup?

      I'm a'gitten plum orneryfied jest settin here like a lame cayuse!

    • " Announcement that dividend will not be paid this quarter, accompanied by a detailed explanation, providing solid reasons, with numbers."

      The solid reason is that the companies earnings power is gone.

      Too many taberna CDO's in cashflow diversion mode, and the RMBS are encumbered with AG's 13% repo agreement.

      I wouldn't be shocked if AFN had further deterioration in both the resi and commercial portfolios.

      "; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind."

      Whoever said that is an idiot. What's useful is insight, not numbers. Numbers don't know where they came from.

      " For me, uncertainty ( silence ) is worse. "

      Read about behaviorial finance, and comfort noise.

    • Proverbs 17:27,28, RSV
      [משלי / Mishlei] JPS, 1917 edition

      http://www.hareidi.org/bible/Proverbs17.htm#28

      Who, me? Talking? What am I thinking?

      (t)otally
      (m)um
      (a)and
      (c)alm:
      (k)eep
      (e)avesdroppers
      (r)estricted

    • Somebody said they may be under a legally-imposed "cone of silence"

      Like, a "quiet period" ?
      http://www.sec-nasd-regulations.com/quietperiod.htm

      I thought that was only for IPO issues.

      I can understand banning insider trading for a time window preceding public announcements, but what kind of a "quiet period" would prevent a timely announcement of the date and amount of a dividend payment?

      RAS has done it 42 times since 1998, but now they are not allowed? I'm not understanding.

      Is it possible that they are somehow not allowed to say "we're having a board meeting to decide on the dividend amount" ?

      What law requires board meetings to be secret? I'm not talking about the details of the discussions in the meeting, I'm talking about just the simple fact of announcing "they're meeting" or "they're not meeting".

      It's not too much to ask. Why is IR not forthcoming?

      What's the use of having an Investor Relations department, if their answer to all questions is "sorry, I can't answer that" ?

      Hey, take the money they spend on the IR department, and spend it on dividends!!! There you go.

      • 2 Replies to nanya_b
      • they prolly a bunch of regular Joe-6-pacs.. trying like the rest of us to figure dis chit out..

      • SEC says this:
        [VERBATIM CUT AND PASTE]
        The federal securities laws do not define the term "quiet period," which is also referred to as the "waiting period." However, historically, a quiet period extended from the time a company files a registration statement with the SEC until SEC staff declared the registration statement "effective."
        [END OF VERBATIM CUT AND PASTE]

        If you consider notices of board meetings, dividend announcements, earning reports, etc. to be 'regularly released factual business information', then explicit permission is given here:

        [VERBATIM CUT AND PASTE]
        All reporting issuers are, at any time, permitted to continue to publish regularly released factual business information and forward-looking information.
        [END OF VERBATIM CUT AND PASTE]

        from
        http://www.sec.gov/answers/quiet.htm

        [Philadelphia lawyer argues the technicalities of 'regularly scheduled' in 3...2...1...]

    • I wonder if they suspend the dividend, like SFI, until 4th quarter.

    • Continuing silence is worse, way worse.

      Say something, even if only "we're still scratching our heads, but we'll announce on {whenever}"

      Sitting schtum ain't helping.

      They've had a week to waffle: sh*t or get off teh pot.

    • I don't know. I can see some really good reasons, in the price of notes and preferreds, to defer the dividend, but the effect of the common would be pretty drastic in between. I'm not sure the board will want to take that risk.

      What I think we'll see instead is something similar to 1Q, with the 46 cent divvy but a long interval to ex-div and payment; preferably one that takes the same account of options days as the 1Q announce did.

 
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