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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • nodoubt8888 nodoubt8888 Jan 13, 2009 10:51 AM Flag


    I don't believe that there is any information out there to suggest what the dividend might be. I also think that given the unique financial times we're in, timing of the dividend announcement is also impossible to predict. I think we just have to sit and wait and wonder.

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    • I'm the guy that threw the gasoline on this fire, so you two can both just simmer down the p*ss*ng contest!

      I disagreed with nodoubt in this respect: he said there was no information available to even base a guess on amount and timing...I said there WAS information out there that you could use to base a guess on: that was a plain disagreement about facts that could be verified...not a guarantee that anyone could calculate when and how much.

      My issue is with the 'no information' and 'impossible' parts of his hyperbole.

      Yes there is some information. The CC clearly stated, as shown in the docs I linked to, what management intended.
      Their intent was, and probably still is, to pay a steady dividend at current levels, four times a year. That's what they said, it's on record repeatedly, and their publicly affirmed position has not changed.

      They further promised to announce after the end of EACH quarter. That establishes a VERY POSSIBLE (not "impossible") timing for the announcement, in a narrowly defined time frame.

      So much for the original difference of opinion.

      Nodoubt stated his opinion that there was 'no information'.
      I stated my opinion that there was lots of information.
      Nodoubt stated that it was 'impossible to predict' when the announcement would be made.
      I stated that it was not only possible to predict, but had in fact already been predicted.

      It's clear as crystal, and no amount of juvenile name-calling and shin-kicking can change the flat facts.

      Let this be an end to it.

      Like it or lump it, facts are stubborn things.

      • 1 Reply to lmtrack
      • You don't get away so easy. First, your IP address is the same as phat's, so I guess you two share a computer and only God knows what else. I program for a living, and know this to be correct. Second, in rereading your original post, you say that everything points to maintaining the current dividend, so I'll assume that's your estimate. Third, if you know so much, give me a date for the dividend announcement, don't be so shy. You seem to want to appear like you know it all, and are so critical of me for what were some rather innocent statements, yet when challenged turn into a girlie man. Give me a date for the dividend, or perhaps stop acting like you know it all.

    • Hahaha! Since you're posting like Imtrack, I'll assume that your guess is maintain current dividend. We'll see how you do. Pitiful performance by a little wimp. I knew you'ld back down completely.

    • My "estimate" is contained in the CC transcript that you refuse to read.

      I have stated, and repeated, my "estimate", and I have plainly demonstrated that there IS ample information available to base a prediction for both date and amount.

      Your childish wiggle-and-squirm will not avail here.

      Whichever one of your half-dozen different postures you attempt to defend, you trip over your own incoherent rantings.

      G'way little boy...come back when yoiu grow up.

    • So, you've completely backed down as I knew you would. A whole bunch of know it all hot air, until I ask you for your estimate, and then you disappear behind your mother's skirt. Next time you make a challenge I suggest that you have something to back it up with.

    • guess you missed that part about

      "A world of difference between zero information to even suggest div amount and time, and no hard factual definition of exact amount and date."

      back to elementary school until you learn how to read plain english, numbskull!

    • OK, know it all, tell me from all of your reading of the factual information what the dividend will be and when it will be announced.
      Put it down right now, and then we can judge about all that knowledge of yours. If you don't post anything, I'll assume that you've backed down completely, and are blowing the usual hot air.

    • "I don't believe that there is any information out there to suggest what the dividend might be."

      I completely disagree.

      There is a ton of information, direct from company sources, and on file with the SEC, that STRONGLY suggests what the dividend might be.

      Start with the transcripts of the last two conference calls, add in the quarterly financial statments, the presentation from the FBR investor conference, and top it off with the analysts' estimates for earnings.

      All point to a continuation of the dividend at current levels.

      SEC filings include all releases, 10-Q statements, and transcripts:

      FPR presentation

      Earnings report:

      CC transcript:

      much more at the IR site:

      The information IS "out there"

      from the CC transcript:

      Daniel Cohen - RAIT Financial Trust — CEO
      "We have taken a policy especially in this environment of waiting until the end of each quarter to make a dividend announcement. And we are going to continue that policy. Additionally we look primarily to our cash flow and to our adjusted earnings as indicative of the dividends that we will declare and the Board considers that as well as REIT taxable income."

      "We decided that in the current credit environment the wisest solution our board has decided is to wait until after the end of the quarter to make a determination based on the results of the quarter. So in the first quarter any dividend will be based upon the results of the fourth quarter this year."

      You heard it here, folks: In the Q1 2009 any dividend will be based on the results of Q4 2008.

      And they are "waiting until the end of" EACH {emphasis mine} quarter to make their announcement.

      Q4 2008 ended 12/31/2008. We are now in the "after the end of the quarter" time frame. Expect an announcement, and expect a dividend.

      That's my story, and I'm sticking to it, until RAS management pulls another double-talk dividend double-cross, at least.

    • You are right about the unpredictable nature of the financial times we currently live in. What is becoming more predicable however is that the longer RAS waits, the worse the news is.
      RAS was and unfortunately remains a primary piece of my pension supplement. If and when a new shoe drops it's off to the classifieds for me.....only beginning the third year year of retirement and what was once a very conservative income projection versus income requirements is now only a memory...looking more like a pipe dream as time goes on...

      • 3 Replies to jmyduce
      • Iknow it is a little late now, but never put more than 4% of your equity into any one stock. No matter how safe it looks. It is Modern Portfolio theory 1A. Sorry for your losses. Alf

      • I'm with you on the retirement. I bought the stock in 1997 or 1998, six months after it went public for retirement. I did retire in 2000 so I have had the income longer but just as you said, it is a major portion of the retirement so the loss would also put me back to work. If they pay a quarterly dividend of 40 cents, I will be all right.

      • I'm not the expert but I have RAS shares long and will continue to hold and accumulate; I believe this will eventually turn out to be a good investment. Commercial real estate has obviously had a downturn, but at some point it will be back, and RAS will participate in the comeback.

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