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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • cubemeister2001 cubemeister2001 Feb 28, 2009 12:10 AM Flag

    Alesco

    A think a lot of the reason RAS is tanking is the combination of Daniel Cohen jumping ship, and Cohen & Company's announced intention to merge with Alesco.

    Both actions are seen as putting the Cohens' interests way ahead of shareholders.

    It is clear that these funds are no longer going to be run for the maximization of shareholder returns, but, rather, as tools for the Cohens to use to rebuild their empire.

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    • Sorry for the interruption but I just wanted to see if the this Leper Colony might have some better lookin' babes.

    • I agree with Smooth, not Cube. I think there is tremendous fear of the future earnings (really cash flow) or lack thereof for these REITS given the rapid decline in all real estate and credit markets. RAS gross cash flow for 2008 fell from 214M to 174M and the Q4 at 38M was the biggest drop, so the market is looking forward and assuming the cash flow continues to disappear. All of their different portfolios experienced declines. I suppose these writedowns they've taken (over $500M) are more a reflection of the past than testimony that that is all that will be needed going forward. Given the wild times we're in now and that government intervention does not yet have seemed to stabilize RAIT's markets, IMO, I think the company should rightly be focused on surviving. If that means token dividends or waiting until the end of the year, so be it. Prefer of course to have some payout, but the PPS is important, too, and the market needs to believe RAS can survive. Right now no matter what they do or say, IMO, won't convince anybody. We need to see some stabilization at least beginning in the real estate markets/credit markets, and all the government intervention at least arresting the freefall we're in now.

      • 3 Replies to nschwartz_99
      • "Q4 at 38M was the biggest drop, so the market is looking forward and assuming the cash flow continues to disappear"

        RAS has disclosed that more of it will disapear as the Euro-taberna's and resi portfolio quit paying.

        It's probably a 20+% drop on those two issues alone, before you even start to worry about the CRE CDO's.

        If those get choked off....

        (Have you see JRT lately?)

      • We all believers kept money in the market with hope, faith and conviction that monies were safe and income is going to be there.

        Now, with whatever small amounts left, is it still time to save that much or keep losing more in very very short time? Disheartening to say the least. Feeling pain for sure.

        Will any uptick rule or mark to market changes will be addressed soon? If they do, these REITs have some chance to recover, IMO.
        If majors of Dow 30's losing share prices faster, how can small company stock perform left at day trader's whims.

      • agree...but they should also learn from the experts at SFI. Buy back stock and arrange/secure further financing. What ever became of the $750m they were supposed to raise ( from March 2008 ) ?

    • <A think a lot of the reason RAS is tanking is the combination of Daniel Cohen jumping ship>

      Well, that doesn't explain why NRF, RSO, AHR and a few other are tanking almost identical to RAS over the past few days and weeks. RSO & AHR dropped 20% on Fri like RAS. NRF dropped 13% even though it reported decent earnings when it traded near $3 earlier in the week.

      We are in unprecendented times with a ferocity not many of us have witnessed in our lifetimes. I think too many people are reading too much into RAS's stock price movement alone.

      Why do you think the NYSE just relaxed the $1 listing requirement: Because they know otherwise decent companies are being beaten to a pulp for no apparent reason other than being caught up in a once in a lifetime market wipeout.

      • 2 Replies to smoothjazz0204
      • "Well, that doesn't explain why NRF, RSO, AHR and a few other are tanking almost identical to RAS over the past few days and weeks. RSO & AHR dropped 20% on Fri like RAS. NRF dropped 13% even though it reported decent earnings when it traded near $3 earlier in the week. "

        Hint: The entire CRE market is collapsing, and everying is getting ready for the first wave of CMBS maturity defaults.

        "I think too many people are reading too much into RAS's stock price movement alone."

        It wouldn't be this low, and falling if not for a reason.

        The deterioration at RAS is plain for everyone to see, and this quarter it finally broke through the Davisfoulger limit. Not even SFAS 159 can hid the trauma.

        RAS's entire investment in the Domestic taberna's is lost, the investment in Resi mortgages nearly lost, the investment in euro-taberna also lost, and the CRE CDO's nearly lost.

        Of course signs of this were clear as recently as 1Q08...

        You had to know where to look, and what to look for.

        "Why do you think the NYSE just relaxed the $1 listing requirement:"

        They don't want to lose the listing fee's and trading volume. It's strictly a money issue. No morals about it.

      • I think the stock price reflects the fact that shareholders are starting to realize that dividends will not be coming in the near future.

        Dividends are the reason 99% of the "old" shareholders owned the stock.

 
RAS
7.83+0.45(+6.10%)Dec 19 4:08 PMEST

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