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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • connor.jin connor.jin Aug 30, 2010 2:20 PM Flag

    I am in at $1.3x

    Thanks for the shares. I will double and triple my shares if it drops a few cents more.

    Contrarians win!

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    • Goodness, hass. RAS has already been at much lower levels. It's been from 45 cents to $4.75 ... and it will probably go higher. The results are better now than there were are $4.75. Recoveries happen. Shorts depend on your fear of losing money to cover. That's OK. You are supposed to make your own decisions. Its just that emotion is a bad decision maker.

    • and of course i hope you are correct. But i have had a few that did, but finally never bounced back. I have no confidence in this team to do the right thing for the common.

    • You just forget 1 very important thing.... Ras usually goes up from the lows, it have done that time after time. Thats why we love to buy RAS at these lower prices, because the odds (history) tell us it will bounce back for a nice 50-100% profit at least.

    • Your philosophy of establsihing these ever lower buy points is akin to old definition of insantiy: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Indeed it could make sense if you really believe that all is well RASland and no one else gets it(that also might be a page in the crazy book).
      and that someday soon the tide will reverse.
      I'm not willing to place that bet.

      However...if RAS continues to tank and lose value the game will end badly...either bankrupt or a reverse split which i think is the most likely play. You can continue to point with glee to the opportunities that the decline provides, but the deterioration goes beyond the pps, it seriously restricts the ability of the company to engage in strategic moves. In short (no pun intended)..there is nothing good in the cards regarding this erosion of value even for the value investor.

      My bet for today is that you'll be delighted to hit another one of your negative benchmarks at 1.25...but be sure to leave some coins in your pocket as i suspect there will be even better opprtunities to accumulate more in the immediate future at even better prices.

    • Tell that to the investors that bough RAS for $0.60 and sold for a 500% profit. I think they would not agree with you. I will pretty much do the same. Not to be buying RAS at these ridicously low prices would be stupid.

    • I don't see much evidence of that. Other stocks are discussed here all the time. There are some single issue players who come through from time to time (Mario has done very well jumping from one stock to another), but most people here seem to be strongly diversified.

      There are lots of other value stocks right now. RAS is just one of them. It is, however, a compelling opportunity, especially when the short position expands and takes the price down a bit.

    • That's only if they have to raise cash, and I've already shown why they may not need to do so.

      But I wouldn't worry about it too much. A buyback of shares at $1 is something that would reduce the dilution rather quickly on the cheap while forcing shorts to cover, and unlike last year, when RAS was dealing with much bigger problems and cash had to be watched really carefully because it was getting used up on one time items, they can be pretty confident of their ability to spend $5M-$10M to good effect without damaging their cash position to much.

      Lots of these speculations are just that. The most important source of air supply is cash flow, and RAS had that. The second most important source are salable assets, and RAS has those. The common is a distant third, and its a long time to April, 2012.

    • What's the flaw in the logic, hass?

      Has RAS not been extremely volatile over the last three years? Have downs not been followed by ups? Are the fundamentals bad? If so, which ones?

      This isn't "happy face" time. Its the down portion of what, over the few years has been about an eight month cycle. I don't see any reason for the price to be this low on this cycle except that the short position is going up. I don't see any reason not to expect the down to reverse at some point.

      If I'm given the gift of $1.25, a price I've been planning for since February (six months ago) I'll take it. If I'm given the gift of shares for $1, a price I've been planning for since July of last year (the last time RAS actually reached that price) I'll take that too (my February bid at $1.01 didn't hit even though the price hit for some buyers). I would probably rather that the prices didn't hit (and they may not), but (at least from the perspective of the value proposition) I'd be a fool not to take the gifts if they are offered.

    • I expect further dilution the..............

      I pick curtain number 3.

      Also, It's putable bonds. RAS is afraid that the bonds will be PUT to them in 2012.

      I believe the bonds might also have some form of a call provision, but why on earth would RAS call them?

    • The pro-RAS boosters seem to have single stock myopia.

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3.14+0.05(+1.62%)Jun 29 4:02 PMEDT