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  • davisfoulger davisfoulger Sep 13, 2010 3:15 PM Flag

    what is the chance?

    I'll take the "old days" as being the range RAS traded in for close to five years before the residential downturn turned into an economic calamity: e.g. $26-$30. I put the odds of seeing $9-$10 over the next two years at over 90%. There are good reasons for thinking that:

    1 - We'll be past the convertible notes put window. It will turn out to be a non-event.

    2 - Profitability will continue to improve such that the business can support a dividend.

    3 - The economy will improve enough that prices will start to rise again. RAS will sell some of its properties, turn the retained capital into new loans, and increase it profitability on loan turnover.

    4 - Financisls, including mortgage REITs, will move back into favor.

    That's just the high points.

    I rate the odds of the "dark side", as you put it, at less than 1%; the odds of an acquisition at less than 5%.

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    • " I put the odds of seeing $9-$10 over the next two years at over 90%. "

      But don't quote me on that. I'm also 90% certain that two years from now I'll deny that I ever said that, or anything remotely close to it.

      After all, I am perfectly happy to predict two years in the future. If anybody points to my prediction then, they'll just be 'dredging up old posts'. As we all know, that's not allowed.

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