Two points to make here: First as reiterated in the CC, estimated free cash flow remains strong @ .93 to 1.23 per share. The Boards position in the past is to payout approx. 65 % of free cash flow which means a near term dividend of .15 to .20 per quarter. On the low end @ $6.48 per share you are earning 9.2% on your investment. (high end is 12% - wow). Secondly, and I repeat this from an earlier thread, adjusted BV @ 3/31/13 was $6.28, @ 6/30/13 it grew to $6.59. This is a 20% growth rate--all if Taberna is completely worthless, which management has not yet conceded to. Hard to find the downside to an investment paying me 9% and growing in value to $7.60 within one years time( I am assuming a BV @ 7.60 would bring the market price with it). As I said before I have doubled my position, and may add more. Oh and if IRT gets ironed out, well, just tack it on. If not, no harm done since it is not a major part of the short term numbers anyway.(one year cash flow prediction).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
good post sme, would just point out adjusted book prob. won't grow that much over the next year - if they earn an 'economic' $1 per share and pay out 65%, you prob. end up closer to $7 per share.
anyway, don't think any of that matters much in the short term. End of day longs on this prob. have to reinvest some dividends and hope management doesn't do anything stupid like issue shares at $7, acquire another Taberna, etc
needoptions - none of the numbers you are referring to would impact adjusted book, which is what my comment referred to -
Davis - if property values rise in the owned portfolio, they won't recognize it in adj book unless they sell - and don't know that bond values would rise in rising rate environment -
anyway, let's check back in six months. I'd be happy if they increase book more than I expect (expecting about a 0.25 increase over six months)
Not sure how you do your math but a 65% payout on a $1.00.share of cash flow will result in a stock price way in excess of $7.00. A $.65 payout at a 7% yield is 9.28/share and RAS typically trades around a 7% yield.
If, as I suspect, we aren't going to see new secondaries for a while, book may go up faster than you expect. There are several reasons for thinking this. Property values should rise in their RE portfolio. Bond asset valuations should increase. New securitizations (another two over the next year, I expect), should increase the number of loans, and while that primarily increases assets under management, the securitizations will add to RAS consolidated asset values and the leveraged earnings will add to the cash pile.
SME estimate seems rasonable to me.
i use schwab as one of my brokers, and their proprietary rating system gives RAS a "B" (A to F scale). i only note this, because of the REITs they cover, the vast majority of them get a D or F. the ratings are based on fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk. as an example NNN gets a D. O gets an F.
You could have made a factual statement in your post, but it was all about your opinion. Therefore I am thumbing this post down. If you are not fully apprised of the inherent rules of posting here, allow me to educate you: I am the only poster allowed to post my opinions without contradiction.
Message received. I already know you are an idiot from reading one or two of your posts in passing before--i never read them all because they contain no useful information. By the way, both statements i made are based upon factual results and information provided by management--only the conclusion was opinion based and is better than anything you have ever offered here. And there you have my only response to your stupidity you will ever get.