Old thread was getting hard to follow. Thanks for the alert on new presentation.
Not clear to me why you don't think the conduit sales are included. It would appear to me these are included in "CMBS originations and securitizations". Any gains would fall into originations. Is there something that leads you to believe otherwise?
The March guidance was actually $0.95 to $1.23, and maybe they had already lowered the bottom of the range, but this is unfortunately a substantial lowering on the high end of the range. The differences appear to me to be mostly lower than expected fee income, perhaps partly on the weaker than expected IRT offering, not sure what else, and a somewhat higher share count - ie, the per share numbers have moved more than the underlying income.
I would say this is disappointing - but w the stock at 8x the low end of guidance, price in at this level.
Let's just hope they don't do any more stupidly priced equity issuances.
The title of page 15 is............................2013 Projected Cash Flow Received From Investments.
The presentation does address conduit loans at a few spots. RAS has made a change in the format from prior presentations that included all sources of income including the sale of conduit loans. My guess is that they are trying to show the investment community that they have some very steady cash flows.....investment income.......that has a very narrow range. The conduit loans could be $250 million one quarter.....and zero the next.
sorry, I actually should have said I believe the conduit origination fees are included in the 'loan origination fee line' on page 15.
I think you are putting too much weight on semantics in the title (ie investments, as opposed to sales). The presentation clearly includes income that doesn't come directly from investments, and on balance sheet loans aren't really investments anyway (they're liabilities). There is a foot note at bottom of 15 which doesn't say anything about excluding certain distributable cash flow (conduits). Also if you refer back to the earlier versions of this cash flow guidance (on earlier presentations, you can find these on SEC site if you don't have), the presentation is identical - just the guidance which has changed.