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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • boxcompany1 boxcompany1 Feb 21, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    Hey Davis

    I responded to your 4th qtr analysis & complained aout mgt indifference to stockholders.
    You replied a s/l of statistics about how far the co has come since 2 1/2 yrs. And that is so.
    I checked this 2 1/2 yr ago, Aug 2011 stock was about $4 [low for the yr] I questioned you
    why the 2 1/2 yr time frame, why not , say 3 yrs. Feb 2011 stock was $10 [high for the yr]
    If you bought then bragging rights are irrelevant, since you're still a loser. You dismiss my
    question like," well,that doesn't count And I say you pick & choose to fit your agenda.
    I wasn't trying to trap you, you did it yourself
    But the ones who really got trapped were the victims of mgts deceitful handling of the capital
    raises. No warning, no offer for stockholder participation, nothing just Pearl Harbor events.
    Not responding to my question reminds of scribbling over the urinal "What are you looking up
    here for, are you ashamed of it?'" But you WILL respond - u can't help it. Just make it sensible"

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    • I made three high risk reit buys several years ago.... RAS, SFI (STAR) and NRF.... sold my RAS after they did the reverse split or maybe before can't recall... anyway, sure glad I did RAS has been a dog for a couple years while NRF and SFI are flying high..... Davis, you can always polish an apple but a bruise can't be polished away.... give it up. you obviously are bright and have time and energy available. Why don't you investigate the universe of stocks and pick a winner to spend some much time on..... do yourself and the board a favor.

      • 2 Replies to invest4dividends
      • Listen balzsvcker, you sold NOW GO AWAY!

      • I'm glad SFICP (the now over the counter version of SFI) and NRF have done well for you. We all make our own choices and its a good thing when those choices work out.

        NRF has certainly done well for me. That said, while the moment you pick matters, RAS has flown at least as much as SFICP and NRF. It has just flown at different times than they have. NRF is way up at the moment (and I've sold down my position in it to a modest fraction of what it was while I wait for them to complete the deck chair rearrangement. Reality is unlikely to match the fantasy that the market has going right now. I don't see it maintaining its current 5.6% yield over the long term. I could be wrong, but I expect to buy back in at lower prices down the line (much as I've profitably done with NCT and NRZ.

        I don't get SFICP (there is no more SFI). I thought it was unduly risky when I sold my holdings in it a few years ago. The OTC designation (which didn't particularly surprise me) does nothing to build confidence it for me. The good news is that it has started to pay a dividend.

        As for RAS, I suspect that the volatility will continue until it starts showing GAAP profits. Most people don't understand what's inside RAS numbers. That's one reason why It has been quite easy to triple your money on RAS over the last few years. Quite a few people have. Some have done better than that. Others haven't. That's not "polishing the apple". It's just what is. I've made a lot of money on NRF, mostly because of the big appreciation over the last five years. I've made more on RAS, but volatility accounts for more of the improvement than appreciation does. That volatility moderated when RAS started paying a quarterly dividend. It will moderate more as the GAAP losses morph into more normal gains. That could happen this year. In the meantime, the dividend continues to rise, and the books suggest that RAS has more room to expand its dividend than NRF does.

        We shall see.

    • You didn't trap me.

      You can't judge a stock by the people who may be underwater at any given time. Stocks go up and down. They all do. Some are more volatile than others, but unless a stock is at all time high there's a chance that somebody is underwater.

      If you want to look back three years (its actually a little over three years to the dates in February, 2011 when RAS traded over $10, that's fine. The peak price ($11.16 split adjusted) occurred on Feb. 14. Roughly 566K shares (split adjusted) changed hands. That's less than 1% of today's float. Anybody who bought that day either sold at a loss or is down (as of today's close) on those purchases by somewhere in the range of $1.19 to $1.77 (assuming that you include the dividends). Prices were above current prices for about one month. If we look back over the last five years, prices have been above current prices for a grand total of about four months (about 1/15th of the time).

      If we did worst case math on that and assumed the number of shares never changed, roughly 1/15th (about 6 million shares) of the float would be under water, but that's not how it worked. Over 65% of the float hadn't even issued two and a half years ago. People buy and sell. Losses are locked in. Gains are locked in. People average down prices. And prices change. It's unlikely that even 2% of the shares that were owned three years ago are underwater, and the owners of those shares have had lots of opportunities to buy at lower prices. That's probably why so many people thank me for putting them on to the stock. Even now most people in this stock are making money. If that includes you, that's great.

      As for the capital raises, they have hurt the price in the short term and helped advance the price over the long term. The money that is raised is invested. The investments result in interest income and rental payments. The increased revenues lead to increased dividends. There's no deceit. Just investors who panic.

    • The case I made for what is now the two and a half year time frame is that it corresponds to resumption of the quarterly dividend. My claim (and I think correct claim) is that RAS volatility was substantially reduced after the dividend resumed and that the price became more predictable.If you want to make a case for three years ago, here it is: RAS had just paid its first cash dividend (an annual dividend for 2010). The dividend initiated a short squeeze that ended in mid-February (just three years ago). Of course if you look at a five year chart you can see just how much the pattern of trading changed when RAS got a quarterly dividend. There are three huge price spikes over the first two ahd a half years, all of which drop to very low prices. In the two and a half years since the dividend has moderated the volatility. The visible change in the chart is yet another argument for using August/September, 2011 as a useful comparison point to now.

      There are other useful comparison points. I like the market bottom in 2009 as a comparison point. I also like the market top in 2007 and the Lehman drop in 2008 as comparison points. The market often refers to these kinds of moments as "inflection points", and I prefer inflection point based analysis to comparisons at fixed moments in time both because it makes the analysis useful for a longer period of time and because it makes sense to focus on moments of change.

      I'm not much of a fan of period based comparisons (two weeks ago mid-Febuary, 2011 will have disappeared from the three year chart). A comparison against the moment when RAS renewed its dividend would actually put the comparison point in mid-December, 2010. RAS price looks pretty good today compared with then.

      My point is that I wasn't being "dismissive". I was simply pointing out an inflection point. Six months ago I didn't tend to say two and a half years. I tended to say two years. It wasn't Cherry Picking then either.

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