So, based on the discussion so far, probably on the side of mid-June with a dividend that could be as high as 19 cents (needoptions), but will probably be at least 18 cents. Good discussion so far. Any other views?
I just re-read the transcript for the last quarter call and read the presentation that is currently posted on the RAIT web site. I got the impression from the conference call that they are shooting for a dividend payout equal to approximately 75% of their CAD. For the year they are projecting a CAD of between .99 and 1.10/share which, at the CAD midpoint and a 75% payout, would get us to about .78 for the year. Since dividends are paid as a reflection of the previous quarter, and assuming a ,01/quarter increase, if RAIT hits projections then I would project the next four quarterly dividends at .18,.19, .20 and .21 which total .78 I think this is their plan. For the first quarter (typically a weak quarter) CAD was only .22/share. I hope we get a dividend increase, but based only on the 1st quarter performance and a 75% payout you would expect it to remain at .17. However, I suspect that since the 1st quarter is seasonally the weakest quarter, and their projections call for substantially better CAD for the rest of the year, we will still get a .01 increase unless their performance since 3/31 has been unexpectedly poor. So that is a long winded way of saying that I expect a .01 increase this quarter, but IMHO don't think there is a chance of more than that.
The most likely time frame extends from June 9 to June 20. They'll only go later if they are trying to push the dividend and aren't sure if the results justify it. Personally, I'd like to see them go earlier AND push the dividend, but that 's pretty low probability.
What is the likelihood of the dividend going up to 18 cents? Seems like the spike in the 4th qtr results should have been explained by RAS rather than have it appear they missed their mark by 5 cents in Q1, as was reported on some financial sites after the CC.