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Vodafone Group Public Limited Company Message Board

  • petertohan petertohan Jul 12, 2013 10:49 PM Flag

    Is there a consensus that VOD will sell the 455 prior to Dec 31, 2013?

    I have been playing the consolidation trades and have done well with both Sprint and then Clearwire. I have been directed here as the next logical choice, ranking ahead of T-Mobile. Traditionally, I play the "option" side of the trade and am looking at the October 2013 calls or the Jan 2014 calls. Quite inexpensive to take a 10,000 share position.

    Most of the research I have done leads me to a "sooner, rather than later "deal. The dd from many on this board indicate the same reasoning. I have been following Paulson on these deals and it appears that he will push to get this done prior to year end due to his massive losses in gold and his need for another home run, even after his LEAP windfall.

    Just curious and for the sake of discussion..any thoughts on the matter?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • "I play the "option" side of the trade and am looking at the October 2013 calls or the Jan 2014 calls. Quite inexpensive to take a 10,000 share position."

      Peter, I'm not sure whether we see a "sooner, rather than later" deal. Reflecting this, I think there's maybe a coin flip shot that VZ buys VOD's VZW stake this year. I don't think a full buyout of VOD is in the works but I understand why others disagree. Regardless of whether or when a deal gets done, I think VOD is a decent value here, and we know why Smalls thinks it's a great value!

      I own shares of VOD. I am also am long VOD 01/18/14 $30 calls and am short an equal number of VOD 01/18/14 $25 puts. My net cost is 72 cents and as of Friday's mark, I'm up about 13 cents on the trade. Depending on what happens between now and expiration, I may eventually own more VOD if the stock is below $25 or over $30.

    • if vz tries to buy entire vod with or without a partner chances are more than 90 percent but if vz wants to buy just vzw share of vod chances are probably less than 30 percent no matter what the offer price is.

    • If you've read the last couple months or so of posts then I'd be wasting time posting here. Handful of both jan
      '14 & '15 leaps. Smidgen of Oct options but not sure if they will see paydirt. Crossing fingers Einhorn and Paulson are good signs. I bought on the denial by VZ of the rumor per two "usually" reliable sources for Financial Times a T/VZ full takeover bid for VOD for 245B was coming. Read where the denial by VZ causes restrictions to allow such to happen before a six month mandatory period passes due to VZ denying. There are ways for it to happen it Appears but I'm not an expert. If I recall, the period expires sometime in Oct.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to smalls_62
      • nigeco Jul 13, 2013 4:31 AM Flag

        That’s right Smalls, I believe the 6 months will be up on October 3/2013.

        Also do you have an opinion on the following, VOD look well positioned in Europe with its acquisitions of Kabel Deutschland, and also Cable & Wireless in the UK last year, for the next big thing “quad-play”, in which mobile, broadband, fixed line, and television are offered together in a bundled service. What do you think of VW offering the same “quad-play” in the USA? If so VW could potentially be worth a lot more in the future?



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