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Vodafone Group Public Limited Company Message Board

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Aug 29, 2013 12:00 AM Flag

    $130 billion deal could be announced as early as sept 2nd, $vz working with banks to secure $60 billion in financing

    $130 billion deal could be announced as early as sept 2nd, $vz working with banks to secure $60 billion in financing ~Bloomberg

    VOD should be trading for $45-$50/share on this news. Such a deal is all of VOD's market cap....no value reflected for ALL of the balance of global operations...EU, South Africa, India, etc. Einhorn has indicated those other global operations are worth a conservative 100B. 130B+100B=230B value=$47/share 'conservative" value given to the balance of global operations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • If Verizon wireless is worth so much money, both VZ and VOD should completely spin it off into a publicly traded company. Both VZ and VOD shareholders will receive the unlocked value of the Verizon wireless shares.

      • 1 Reply to bobbleaque
      • You apparently don't understand the mechanics of the ownership and Verizon's reliance of growth and profits that are mostly based on Verizon Wireless ownership. Their other assets are relatively weak with mostly land lines. VZ has every reason to want full control of the wireless venture. Have been to laughing when people have said VZ was in the drivers seat. If they spun it off then there wouldn't be much left to VZ.

    • Many investors do not understand the deal is only to sell its USA wireless assets. This is not a takeover.
      What is left is a massive European wide telecom, and, as you indicated, outside EU operations particularly UK, India and Africa. VOD plans to huge expansion into African countries experiencing fast growth and, to date, under served. This deal is likely to result in a huge dividend payment as well, leaving a large cash surplus for funding growth.

      • 1 Reply to duedilgencethenaction
      • Yes. Many investors do not understand the deal is only for USA wireless assets (otherwise known as a 45% stake in Verizon Wireless-a short bus on the message board this morning apparently didn't understand it!). Still think AT&T could come knocking in the near future for the stub assets of VOD.

        Merril and Bernstein analystS also believe a deal for stub assets still possible. Bernstein's sell side analyst Ms. Bienenstock has put a 80B GBP (= $124B USD) bid possibility for the rest of the company. Now the question is IF IF IF the VZW sale actually occurs, does T step up to the plate and buy the balance of the VOD assets. Articles in previous months have indicated T has been targeting EU acquisition and VOD was in the top two of a developing list. Telefonica rumor was rumored to be blocked..(which would have given them a significant Latin American footprint). Now they could turn to VOD who would give them a footprint in those markets we have discussed -UK, EU, India, Africa. I belive they have some Aussie exposure and some Indonesian footprint as well. So much misunderstanding of VOD and why it is selling way below its true value.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • you think its a good idea to jump on vod?

    • "Einhorn has indicated those other global operations are worth a conservative 100B. 130B+100B=230B value=$47/share 'conservative" value given to the balance of global operations."

      The key question is, why does the market not reflect this? This is especially true now that VOD is close to confirming the huge value of VZW. My explanation for the big discount is that a buyout of VOD is very unlikely because of political, regulatory or management risk or resistance. Smalls, if you are right that these issues are not deal killers, then aggressive institutional investors should be bidding VOD up somewhat closer to your "fair value," right? If T is in fact working on a buyout deal, they won't keep a huge deal like this secret. So we should be hearing buyout chatter along with better price action if a deal is in the works.

      For now, it looks like the simple deal where VZ buys the VZW stake is going to happen. VOD will likely take the money and invest and acquire to expand operations. They will also likely pay a decent special dividend. This is what VOD has said they wanted to do all along. And finally, I continue to predict VOD will remain independent.

      • 1 Reply to betting_my_bundle
      • Value isn't reflected near my number in large part to the fact we have been here before. Rumors were then denied and down VOD went. BTW, market isn't always efficient and why we have value investing.

        If I'm wrong on VOD full takeover, so be it. Several have suggested an approach by T after a VZW deal but I just don't see it. Simultaneous joint deal or it will indeed be just a VZW deal. Still doesn't change my opinion that VOD is worth $47/share.

 
VOD
30.70+0.22(+0.72%)Oct 20 4:00 PMEDT

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