VOD acting exactly like CLWR just prior to bid from S/SB
the same pattern here as CLWR traded a few months ago. Extremely heavy volume and a drop in pps. Just when enough retail and weak institutions had bailed, S/SB announced a takeover bid.
Last week, VOD traded down on extremely heavy volume compared to avg. daily. Each time it fights back, it is hit with additional shares. The open is being hit with a few hundred thousand shares the previous few trading sessions and when it fights back, it gets hit again.
My bet is that an offer is close based on this trading pattern. A hold a significant option position out until January 2014. The positions by insiders were taken a few weeks ago and a large option play on Friday. What we are seeing is simply noise, in my opinion.
Same game, different stock. The price action has been almost identical to the CLWR/S/SB deal. The pps was driven down 25% and then POW, the offer was made. I believe that T wants an initial offer at 40 bucks or so and needed to keep the pps at these levels, thus stopping the momentum of prior week's.
Once we get an analyst place a price on the deal, we move to the next level. I expect one of the hedge guys to announce his bottom line acceptance over the weekend. First, they will load up shares tomorrow.
These Wall Street shysters were shaking the tree's during the past few day's. Hopefully most of the people here hung on tight. This is not the time to try to scalp 20 cents off your basis.
I'm starting to see similarity too. There was a bunch of tug-a-war going on in the media just before the deal officially broke for CLWR. The last few weeks have been filled with conflicting stories for VOD/T.
If the T boys weren't serious then they wouldn't have met with Kroes this Summer and Stephens wouldn't have been beating a conference pulpit for reform in the EU. They aren't looking to dip the toe in EU (with an EE purchase placing them in UK=wouldn't need reform across the EU board) they are looking to dive in head first and wanted "assurances" from Kroes and gang that they weren't diving head first into a shallow pool. Kroes and EU heads gave a go ahead thumbs up for a deep dive on October 24. They are now on the hunt. Bid possible by EOM IMO.
most of these vod bashers and those who short vod( even though i have hard tim thinking anybody will short vod in their right mind) do not understand the inevititability of t going after vod. there are much bigger forces at play than just one business buying another. if they could understand that they would not short vod. there were some who want to buy vod for 29$ which just means they are waiting for vod to be 39$ before they buy.
Einhorn has value at appx. $44 total without any takover premium - just gets the VOD stub on par with sector multiples and argues it could be higher given they are mostly wireless vs. most in sector are old world wireline asset companies (less growth etc). That $44 includes the $17 special divy to be made from VZW sale proceeds.
The recent action was a gap filling on a technical move. You said initial offer putting total share price at $40 is like VZ offering the 95 or 100B initial for VZW. $40-17=23 initial offer. $23*30% premium for eventual sale price = $30/share +$17 special divy yet to be paid = $47. $47 minimum up to $52.
The Kroes agenda nod be EU heads last week was the green flag waving for T.