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Galena Biopharma, Inc. Message Board

  • ntdy ntdy Mar 24, 2012 3:09 PM Flag

    GALE and NeuVax(R) legitimacy question and potential value

    The potential reward vs risk for this company is incredible at current valuation. I have 2+ decades of experiences in developing and commercializing technology and IP porfolio, and my opinion is that this NeuVax patent could be worth tens of billions of dollars in future revenue and profits. Obviously, most investors have yet to figure it out. But now that GALE is no longer under the radar, I am quite sure that serious investors will figure it out soon enough.

    Below is a link to recent breast cancer statistics. About 12% of women in US will develop breast cancer during their lifetime. If NewVax can improve the recurring rate by 6-10% absolute, that is a lot of lives that could be saved each year by this drug. The FDA will look at benefits vs risks, and for cancer patients saving lives is the FDA 's highest priority. That's why they already went with a SPA for NeuVax.

    http://www.breastcancer.org/symptoms/understand_bc/statistics.jsp

    These two links below unquestionably answered the legitimacy question about NeuVax, GALE and their new management. The new CEO and his team look like real winners. It also appear that GALE may have the inside track with DOE on future development of NeuVax for treatment of other cancers.

    http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=66697

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarcial/2012/03/15/roche-accelerates-defense-strategy-to-protect-breast-cancer-drug-herceptins-turf/?partner=yahoofeed

    Downside is bankruptcy and total loss of $100M of investor money. Upside is billions in market cap in a few years.

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    • Thanks for your Due Dilligence.

    • bump for DD

      • 1 Reply to dirtystockbird
      • dirty, jesse, others, Glad to see someone resurrected this thread. Interesting to read what folks were speculating back in March. Yes, in my opinion, gale is the real deal. Looks like the dilution recently took care of the bk fears going about in March. Appears to me positive and informative articles are over 5 to 1 higher than basher articles. That one a few weeks ago was clearly a wanna be in gale in sheeps clothing posing as a basher, he tried to make it sound like gale was one of those bio tech pump and dump schemes with no valdity. He, and his followers wanted to get in gale as cheeply as possible. 95% success rate in phase 2, on a difficult disease to treat, sounds very good to me. Appears that a lot of big money is involved here, another good sign. In closing, glad to be here in you guys company.glta

    • ntdy..

      Interesting....

      Obviously...reducing breast ca recurrences by 50% or more, is a very big deal..I read the previous clinical study which did impress me. Have not done enough DD to know if there are competing ideas, or if others are ahead of them in the NDA-NCE race.

      Late clinical stage publicly traded BTs all have problems remaining adequately capitalised..The low single digit PPSs, combined with poor credit, cause the inevitable dilutions to become increasingly more malignant..Superficially,looks like this company should buddy up with a BP for these P3s...which is SOP if the situation is legit..question is whether this might be a trade, a buy now, on the pop after the announcement...Then a long time hold around the NDA date..

      ":>) JL

      • 1 Reply to jesse.livermore
      • Jesse, Glad you are taking a look. Your knowledge and experiences in the medical field would be a very positive addition to this discussion board - if you decide it's worth an investment after doing your dd.

        Obviously there are always risks with these types of companies, but at this point because the market cap is still so tiny, even after the positive study outcomes and the patent, I do believe that potential upside far outweigh the downside risks.

    • all_my_eggs_in_1_basket all_my_eggs_in_1_basket Mar 24, 2012 11:06 PM Flag

      You can bet this article on Dr. Peoples makes the shorts squirm. The U.S. Army Medical Corp has a long history of great innovation going back to its work against yellow fever during the construction of the Panama Canal and all the way back to the Civil War when it organized to treat the wounded.

      The shorts would LOVE to tar the name of Dr. Peoples, a Colonel whose reputation for service to country and science is stellar.

    • ntdy, great post. Yes, you are correct, Gale is the real deal as a company and they have the goods to get them there. Colonel/Dr Peoples is a highly respected doctor at SAMMC(San Antonio Military Medical Center) and he's not going to be doing vaccine development with taxpayer money in any way, shape, or form that is negative or remotely a scam. This is a stock you buy and just put away for 3-5 years at the most. My gut feeling is they get taken out within 18 months at an extreme premium like these Hep C drug companies were.

      GL to all serious longs

    • do you see any legitimate chance of bankruptcy? or even major drop bc of dilution? thanks for input.

      • 2 Replies to deeptinker39
      • I doubt that bankruptcy is in the card in the near future. I think the only question is at what prices GALE will be able to raise more money for the Phase III studies - given the positive results and the patent now granted (which could be worth billions of dollars but has not been valued at all in the market cap).

        I think at this development stage, "dilution" doesn't equate to lost shareholder values and is actually positive for shareholder values. Frankly, I think people who talk about dilution at this stage have no understanding of business development at the venture capital stage. All companies go through these stages, so the question is not about dilution but about future values at current cost and potential benefit vs investment risks. If GALE can raise $100M (say, by selling 40M shares) to accomplish a successful Phase III study and FDA approval which then increase GALE market cap to >$1B, is that dilution?

        If the company can not raise money now, then I would be very worry, because bankruptcy is in the card and there is no way for GALE management to increase shareholder values greatly without doing the Phase III and getting FDA approval. So I am for GALE to raise all the money they can now, but don't sell out too cheap.

 
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