Article Against PropThink Says Major Banks behind Gale, PropThink a Scam. posted.
Galena Biopharma: Catalysts Have Led Its Stock Higher
November 12, 2012 |
Both firms are very positive on Galena Biopharma and have contributed to its rally with their bullish price targets. The PropThink website also discloses that they may have a position either long or short on the securities that they cover. This creates a red flag to me as an investor.Every analyst has the right to give whatever price target, upgrade, downgrade, or change their opinion as much as they'd like. There are no rules about providing an opinion. However, the timing of the article is a bit strange, right before earnings.
Also, four other well-respected banks have continued to be bullish on the company. In particular, Maxim recently initiated coverage with a "buy" and a $6 price target, MLV with a "buy" and $6 price target, Cantor with a "buy" and $4 target, and finally Ross Capital has continued to reiterate its "buy" with a $5 target.
In addition to the developments above, Galena has announced several new additions to its scientific advisory board, clinical team, and has received several upgrades and bullish price targets in the process. I think it is clear that Galena is a stock that has moved in 2012 as a result of the company's changing direction and execution. A biotechnology stock moves on data, and Galena has announced several key pieces of data that suggests potential success in a larger trial, although we won't know until the Phase 3 trial is complete, or until interim data is released.
The information above includes data and news releases for investors to make their own decision. The PropThink piece is a one sided biased piece, it needs to be balanced with the company's news and potential results. Instead of focusing on RXI capital structure, investors should really focus on whether the phase III trial of NeuVax provides a decent chance of success based on prior data. If the phase III trial succeeds, GALE will be instantly a multibillion-dollar company. The key question is what is the probability and does the current valuation justify that chance.
After assessing all information, I conclude that Galena's valuation is taking into account all potential risks. A $100 million company does not reflect a large biotechnology company. Nor does it reflect the potential of NeuVax if current data stands in larger trials. Galena's Phase data, upgrades, patents, and additions to its clinical staff have all created upside, and therefore have driven the price of the stock higher. Of course we cannot draw an absolute conclusion until final data is known, which is the case for all biotechnology companies. Given the developments listed above, its current valuation, and the very large sales potential if NeuVax is proven effective, I believe that Galena is presenting a good opportunity for long-term investors.