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Galena Biopharma, Inc. Message Board

• rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Feb 2, 2014 2:14 AM Flag

Q4 Abstral sales

I used a simple growth formula q(t) = q(0)e^ct to estimate the 4th quarter Abstral revenue. Q(0) =624 prescriptions. I derived this by using the \$1.2 million reported revenue adjusted to \$1.5 million to account for 30% reduction in sales due to coupon use and then divided by the prescription low end price of \$2500 (1,500,000/2500 = 624 prescriptions). We know from Mark Ahn that the 4th quarter ended with 5% market penetration and the market size was assumed by him to be \$400,000,000. %5 is therefore \$20,000,000 and this is my q(13) since there is 13 weeks in the quarter. I then solved the equation for c which gave me the constant of 0.196. Here is my weekly sales numbers.
Week Scripts(Cum) New Scripts Weekly \$ (new scripts x \$2500)
0 624
1 759.1127889
2 923.4811319 164.368343 \$410920.8575
3 1123.439644 199.9585116 \$499896.2791
4 1366.694553 243.2549093 \$608137.2734
5 1662.620695 295.9261421 \$739815.3552
6 2022.622809 360.0021138 \$900005.2846
7 2460.575066 437.9522574 \$1094880.644
8 2993.355771 532.7807044 \$1331951.761
9 3641.497832 648.1420616 \$1620355.154
10 4429.980089 788.4822564 \$1971205.641
11 5389.189968 959.2098793 \$2398024.698
12 6556.094594 1166.904626 \$2917261.565
13 7975.665467 1419.570874 \$3548927.184
Total revenue for quarter = \$18,041,381.7. If you want to assume that every customer got there first month of Abstral for free (I doubt it) then the total total revenue for the 4th quarter is still \$9,500,000.