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Galena Biopharma, Inc. Message Board

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Feb 2, 2014 2:14 AM Flag

    Q4 Abstral sales

    I used a simple growth formula q(t) = q(0)e^ct to estimate the 4th quarter Abstral revenue. Q(0) =624 prescriptions. I derived this by using the $1.2 million reported revenue adjusted to $1.5 million to account for 30% reduction in sales due to coupon use and then divided by the prescription low end price of $2500 (1,500,000/2500 = 624 prescriptions). We know from Mark Ahn that the 4th quarter ended with 5% market penetration and the market size was assumed by him to be $400,000,000. %5 is therefore $20,000,000 and this is my q(13) since there is 13 weeks in the quarter. I then solved the equation for c which gave me the constant of 0.196. Here is my weekly sales numbers.
    Week Scripts(Cum) New Scripts Weekly $ (new scripts x $2500)
    0 624
    1 759.1127889
    2 923.4811319 164.368343 $410920.8575
    3 1123.439644 199.9585116 $499896.2791
    4 1366.694553 243.2549093 $608137.2734
    5 1662.620695 295.9261421 $739815.3552
    6 2022.622809 360.0021138 $900005.2846
    7 2460.575066 437.9522574 $1094880.644
    8 2993.355771 532.7807044 $1331951.761
    9 3641.497832 648.1420616 $1620355.154
    10 4429.980089 788.4822564 $1971205.641
    11 5389.189968 959.2098793 $2398024.698
    12 6556.094594 1166.904626 $2917261.565
    13 7975.665467 1419.570874 $3548927.184
    Total revenue for quarter = $18,041,381.7. If you want to assume that every customer got there first month of Abstral for free (I doubt it) then the total total revenue for the 4th quarter is still $9,500,000.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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