1. The market cap is uneffected by the lock up end date. The shares are not diluting the float, simply free to trade. Fundamentals uneffected by increase in free float.
(Give me a break...market cap is not the issue...locked out windfall stock owners is. They will be cashing in huge on 11/15)
2. Everyone knows the lock up end date is fast approaching and it is priced in.
( Yes priced in every day as the stock falls on consecutive hours right into after hours every day)
3. Not every GOOG holder holding locked shares will sell. Many won't sell any. And not all of the locked shares become unlocked on the 16th.
(Correct, but most will sell all or up to half which is very ver significant 20 million extra shares avail to buy in one day...demand and supply side economics will take place. Also take a look at other previous lockout situations and you will see, Google is on the same path.)
4. The stock has fallen about 25% in less than a week on no bad news. A bounce is coming.
(Why do you think that is falls 25% with no bad news in a huge up market...it will freefall on any bad draft)
5. The float is still extremely small with the locked up shares included.
(40 million shares is small???--gag)
6. Institutions are severely underweight on GOOG and are dying to get in.
( Any institution that bought now would be seen as a gambling with peoples money...they will be on the sidelines till late December when google hits appro $100)
7. GOOG is an established company with big profits alot of cash and huge growth potential. This is not some 1999 fly by night dot com. Get a clue.
( Lets call a spade a spade here...it is a search engine--albeit the best...but there are lots of good competitors and Microsoft could eat their lunch making this stock close to worthless within the year...)
Prediction for the short side of GOOG: PAIN. (Prediction for longs...another lesson on the internet bubble burst. )