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Google Inc. Message Board

  • roblabtec roblabtec Dec 18, 2004 2:12 PM Flag

    Google analysis-Target price -$90

    Google is no doubt a great company, but it's valuation is insane. I did a comparison with the one of the greatest tech stocks of all time Microsoft. Google's 2004 estimates are for revenue of about $3 billion and earnings of $775 million. Very impressive growth. Now, when Microsoft had those revenues and earnings it was 1993. Remember Microsoft had no real competition and enjoyed the biggest tech boom of all time.
    Here is the problem. Google current market cap is around $50 billion. Guess what Microsoft's was in 1993 when it had the same financials as Google today ? $26 billion. That's right. Google is worth almost double Microsoft at their same point in time. Absolutely insane. Google has tremendous competition from not only MSFT, but YHOO,AOL, etc. This stock is an accident waiting to happen. Please contradict this analysis if you dare.
    Thanks.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • You forgot your prices are not adjusted for inflation (I'll us 3.5%)over an 11-year period. Plug that in first. Getting close?. Now plug in economies-of-scale (you can guess)and you would see GOOG is less than MSFT was at that point in time. I.E. What was the average home price in 1993, What was the average cost of a nea car, What was the price of a stamp, etc...you get the picture.

    • >>Google is worth 50 billion dollars that is more than FEDX and Starbucks combined. <<

      The difference is that coffe and donuts HAVE TO BE MADE BEFORE SOLD. Every single one! There is a cost of raw material and wages, etc.

      Google had to set up business ONLY ONCE, and it can increase the sales without spending too much on it. It can sell what it has OVER AND OVER AND OVER without investing too much.

      It is like having monopoly on selling air...
      Believe me, the business concept is ingenious.
      Of course there is always the danger of losing out to the competition, etc.

      But no matter where I surf the net, I see google search everywhere. In China, Korea, Arabia, Russia..... these people mean business. They are pushing their merchandise. I would rather invest in something like this, than in a business that's net worth is high, but the management is stupid.

    • are there any other internet companies that you like as an investment here?

      Since you obviously use the services

    • Krispy Kreme donuts taste great
      Netflix has fantastic DVD's
      Palm TREO is a tremendous smart phone.

      It all comes down to valuation. Google is worth 50 billion dollars that is more than FEDX and Starbucks combined. Does that make sense ? I don't think so.

    • You want to gauge results?

      Pull the ad and see if business goes down any.You may be throwing money away.

      If google sqauwks/has fees etc then start advertising on yahoo or msn.

      Reach customers that may not have already seen you on google.

    • Honestly, I don't know much about it, but I think that the frauds used to be committed by the "pay per click" type of companies' clients.... Or, by people who have websites, and make money putting banners on them and make money per clicks. Programmers can actually make clicking programs to commit fraud.

      But I don't think that Google , or any other reputable company would steep this low. Who else's interest would be to defraud the advertisers at Google??????

      Also, Google can't afford to cheat, because he won't have any repeat customers if he does. People would stop advertising if all they had was clicks, but no business.

    • You are right, many companies depend on google listing for traffic to their site. Some very successful companies pay tens of thousands of dollars to get priority placement, especially Canadian pharmacies.

      My question is if I have a company and advertise on Google, how can I be sure that people are actually clicking on the links that I am paying google for and some software program?

    • Sorry for the typoos:)
      It is early morning here.

    • I know there are other aspects I don't know much about, but I know that advertising on Goog makes all the difference for lots companies between swim or sink.....
      I have heard that the money they spend on Google ads is worth gold.
      I know people who tried. Their clicks went up enormously...

      At this moment the "google" name stands for search engine, just like MacDonalds stands for hamburger. (I personally don't particularly like to use it, but most people when they search, they think do automatically use Google.)

    • http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=goog

      look at this SHT!!

      all fcking GOOG employees are millionaire...

      WANT TO BE A MILLIONAIRE? WORK AT GOOGLE, AND EXERCISE THEIR OPTIONS... OR SELL THEIR STOCKS...

      • 1 Reply to stockstocks12345
      • http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=goog

        look at this SHT!!

        all fcking GOOG employees are millionaire...

        WANT TO BE A MILLIONAIRE? WORK AT GOOGLE, AND EXERCISE THEIR OPTIONS... OR SELL THEIR STOCKS...
        >>>>>>>>>>>>>
        Bloat earnings with linux crap, shame on them!
        DCX, AutoZone sued for Linux, Unix use
        Owner says it is protecting property
        March 4, 2004
        MARK THIESSEN
        ASSOCIATED PRESS
        SALT LAKE CITY -- Taking a page from the music industry, SCO Group Inc. sued and DaimlerChrysler AG and AutoZone Inc. on Wednesday to force them and other companies to respect the software copyrights SCO claims ought to apply to the Linux and Unix computer operating systems.
        "We have now taken the significant next step," said SCO President Darl McBride, who said his company will "vigorously protect and enforce" its intellectual property.
        The copyright infringement lawsuit against AutoZone alleges the auto-parts chain runs versions of the Linux computer operating system that SCO says contains its programming code.
        The lawsuit, filed in Nevada, demands AutoZone immediately stop using or copying any part of SCO's copyrighted code. It also seeks unspecified damages. AutoZone spokesman Ray Pohlman said the company hadn't seen the lawsuit and would not comment. He also wouldn't say how the company uses Linux.
        Lindon, Utah-based SCO also filed a lawsuit in Michigan against DaimlerChrysler, alleging the automaker refused to comply with terms of its Unix software agreement with SCO.
        It asks that the automaker immediately certify compliance and seeks damages, including legal fees. DaimlerChrysler spokeswoman Mary Gauthier declined to comment, saying the company's executives had not seen the lawsuit.
        "These are not just two users we randomly picked," McBride said. Instead, he said, they represent two classes of Linux users who are violating either SCO's agreement or copyright.
        SCO is attacking the issue along the same lines as the music industry, hit hard financially by people it claims illegally downloaded music off the Internet.
        Since September, the Recording Industry Association of America has sued 1,445 people who allegedly downloaded copyrighted songs. The music industry says its tactics are slowing free downloads.
        "We believe the legal actions we have taken . . . will have a similar impact," McBride said.
        In the last year, SCO has sent letters to about 1,500 companies demanding they pay licensing fees of about $700 for each server running Linux or face legal action.
        SCO spokesman Blake Stowell said DaimlerChrysler did not respond to a letter regarding its use of Unix. DaimlerChrysler obtained a Unix license years ago, but Stowell said he did not immediately know if it was through SCO or Unix's two previous owners, Novell Inc. or AT&T Corp.
        SCO holds the rights to key elements of the 30-year-old Unix operating system from which Linux was inspired and claims parts of it have been incorporated in Linux. Those claims are disputed by, among others, Novell and IBM Corp.

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