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Google Inc. Message Board

  • eronat eronat Jan 26, 2005 11:35 AM Flag

    $20 Stock Selling for $180

    This stock should be selling at $20 right now. And that is based on a growth company consideration.

    Whoever is buying this stock for $180 ask yourself how you handle REGRET in life. You are basically screaming that you actually have too much money right now and you will not rest till it is gone.

    If you are not prepared to lose at least three quarters of your so called investment in this stock before April, get out and stay out.

    For those people who feel like a genius because there are greater fools out there, ask what kind of future has to transpire so this company right now is rightly valued at $50 Billion dollars. What will happen?

    Then ask yourself who will let them see this future. The world will not align itself so that this company fulfills that valuation and gets away with so much profit dollars. Profit will attract competition faster than any honey and blood anology you and I can think of.

    Look, mere expectation of being temporarily overvalued like Google will attract competition, let alone profits.

    Google is a great company run by enlightened and intelligent founders and a wannabe, never-was CEO. Like everything money can buy, it has a dollar value. But the price is not right. It isn't even close to being right.

    Not too far into the future, all the business book writers will cite Google as another episode in the long history of bubbles and manias and will refer to amateur speculators as unkindly as doing so will make them sound intelligent.

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    • Any time you hear people say things like: "This company is one of a kind. It can not be evaluated in terms of any other company that has ever existed . . . "

      Be very careful.

      There is only so much money in the advertising sector. GOOG is not worth more than the top 10 advertising agencies combined. It is currently valued at 5 times what Netscape was worth at its PEAK. You could sell the whole company at this value, put the money in a 3%-interest-bearing savings account, and the profits would be more than double what the actual profits of the company are.

      Don't believe the hype. This is a great product, a great company -- but it still needs to produce much better profits on investment at the end of the day if it is even to justify its current valuation.

    • Most people have never heard of XLA, or Scandinavia Corp as it was previously known before they purchased Mirror Image. Generally speaking, you are talking to people who have very little hisatoric perspective. I do indeed recall the move in XLA. There are more like that out there. Position yourselves accordingly.

    • A description of a stock as a "bursting star" makes no justification for the stock price.

      Remember Xcelera (XLA)?? There was a "new star" in early 2000. At the time, it had nearly nil revenue, but a market cap that was huge! HP loaned it money, Exodus bought its stock. Yet the equivalent p/e was if you owned a lemonade stand...

      "Son, how much lemonade did you sell??"
      "I'll buy your lemonade stand for ONE MILLION DOLLARS. It has so much potential!!"

      This is the true dollar value placed on a "rising star" in 2000, and sober sane executives paid it!

    • How in the hell can you possibly be serious about assigning a $20 valuation on GOOG stock???

      This is, at best, a GROSS exaggeration of a downside estimation. If this stock DOES really tank from purely momentum cyclical fears (and not based on any actual serious problems), it cannot possibly go below the $130-$150 range. Even with all shares unlocked. And, at those levels, when the blood is totally spilled, there will be PANIC BUYING like vultures swooping down on a piece of fresh meat!!

      Three things that people in general still do not get about GOOG:
      1) THE FLOAT!!! IT IS TINY!!! GUARANTEES LIQUIDITY!! Even with all shares unlocked! Even with massive insider sell offs. The only fear to worry about on these unlocks is FEAR ITSELF! UNWARRANTED FEARS! IT IS A NON-EVENT in reality, but makes for great daytrading to cash in on the fears/uncertainties.
      2) GOOG is not merely a search engine! IT IS A MEDIA GIANT!! An advertising BONANZA.
      3) GOOG is HIGHLY innovative and motivated with EXTREMELY loyal, high paid staff. They WILL make huge breakthroughs in many innovative areas which expand their empire.

      The real error, basiucally, people keep making that keep them on the "left out of gains" or "losing money" side of the ledger is that PEOPLE CANNOT SEE GOOG FOR WHAT IT IS. They are too busy trying to compare it with things IT IS NOT.


      • 2 Replies to itm2000
      • If Google could get EVERY INTERNET ADVERTISING DOLLAR, the total of all internet advertising, and turned it into profit at its current rate, it would have a p/e of 41!!

        You think it isn't overvalued??
        Even a "giant" will drown if he wades very far from shore.

      • While i agree wthat this is not a 20 stock i do a have a few problems with what you said.

        1)Tiny float causes it to be LESS liquid. the higher the float the more liquid. The proof of this is the tremendous price swings in google. They are caused by low liquidity.

        2)Google is merely a search engine. You want to call it a media giant, go ahead, that does not change the fact that the only service they provide is through an internet search engine. A horse by any other name is still a horse.

        3)You are assuming that they decide to stay there and not start there own companies, or retire after selling thier shares. Look at microsft, the same thing could have been said about them. Also, they are not alone, all the companies competing in the search area can claim the same thing

    • You just assured those who are buying the stock for the next big upswing. Short term gyrations aside (and they are considerable) GOOG will likely trade at considerably higher prices in the next 2-3 months. Position yourselves accordingly.

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