We are direct participants in an exciting experiment:
We shorts believe we have actionable information that GOOG will tank in the next several days.
The efficient mkt theory says (as I understand) that today's closing price has priced in all available information and that we are no more likely to be right about the future than longs. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The efficient market theory assumes the float is constant.
The wild card is the attitude of the holders of the 177,000,000 shares there is no way the market could know because 65% of the market could not express it's opinion. So the market can't be efficient until they have had a few weeks or months to express their opinion about Google and their standard of living.
The wild card is the attitude of the holders of the 177,000,000 shares there is no way the market could know because 65% of the market could not express it's opinion
Today's "analyst meeting" was supposed to be the antidote to all the new float potentially getting freed up Monday.
It was clearly a Richter scale-10 disaster - therefore I would argue that nothing stands between GOOG and a meltdown except the MMs who are acting as a break and walking the stock down in an orderly progression.
I would also assume some profit-taking shorts covered today and will do so Thu and Fri also. I personally intend to hold for 160.