OK let's stop all the pontification about stuff that does not mean anything.
All that matters is the stock price.
While in a perfect world intraday low/high would be ideal, I'd like to see who on this board nails the closing price.
Whoever is in, I will try to put together a summary for Mon night.
I am going to pick $172.
Anyone else venture a guess?
I stand corrected, sorry. OK, so GOOG tanks on any downgrade. Good to know!
Stupid error. So, let's review the numbers:
1. 188.32 - 11/15 high day before 39.1M employee unlock
2. 172.545 - 11/16 close on first unlock day = -8.4% from previous day high
3. 161.31 - 11/22 low, 4th trading day after unlock (-14.3% from 11/15 high)
Here we have 176.8 million shares unlocking. So, if GOOG responds as it did in November, here is how the stock price would react:
1. 192.32 2/11 high day before 176.8M employee unlock
2. 119.474 2/14 close (-8.7% x 176.8/39.1 = corresponding unlock numbers)
3. 67.59 2/18 close (-14.3% x 176.8/39.1 = -64.9%)
Get the picture? Ths does not factor in further bad news or VC selling. It seems to me that a great many GOOG traders are ignoring:
a) GOOG unlock trading history; and
b) That this unlock DWARFS the November unlock that slammed GOOG, 4.5 times as many shares coming to market
c) That the float is about to at least DOUBLE
By the way, please correct these numbers if they are offer, but I triple-checked them (numbers were rounded above but not rounded doing the math).
Now, where is that GOOG chef...
Google Stock Slips as New Shares Hit Market
Price Is Still More Than Double IPO's
By David A. Vise
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 17, 2004; Page E05
Google Inc. stock dropped more than 6 percent yesterday as tens of millions of new shares held by early investors and employees of the search engine giant became available for sale for the first time.
The stock price fell $12.33, to $172.55, on heavy volume yesterday. About 20.9 million shares changed hands, nearly double the 11.9 million shares that traded on Monday.
When the company went public in August, it placed restrictions on trading by early investors and laid out a six-month timetable for when they could sell. Those restrictions were lifted on 39.1 million new shares yesterday, a block that exceeded the 22.5 million shares sold in Google's initial public offering in August. In the months ahead, more than 200 million additional shares are slated to become available for sale, with the biggest chunk of stock becoming available in February.
Since no public disclosure of sales is required for about a month, it will likely be weeks before it is clear whether Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, the company's two biggest stockholders, were among the sellers yesterday, and, if they were, how much they sold. That same uncertainty holds true for other Google employees and early investors.
Around the Google campus, however, some employees have vowed to cash in at least a portion of their holdings to diversify their investments and minimize the risk that the price may fall. Many still remember missing opportunities to sell pricey stock they held in other Internet firms several years ago, shares that subsequently collapsed after being high-fliers. Some said they want to avoid getting caught on the wrong end of another boom-bust cycle.
After a meteoric rise in its stock price since August, Google has a total stock market value of more than $50 billion. The company went public at $85 a share. Since then, the stock has traded as high as $201.60 before dropping back into its current trading range. As recently as last week, the stock was trading in the mid-$160s.
The leading Internet search engine, Google is used by millions of computer users to find information and answers to their questions swiftly online. The company profits almost entirely through the sale of online advertising related to search requests.
Google stock is trading for more than 200 times its per-share profit, leading some analysts to caution investors that it appears overvalued. Those fears were stoked last week when rival Microsoft Corp. released an early version of a competing search engine.
I thought about that yesterday but there had already been about 20 guesses. Do one for Monday close and one for Friday close.
I'm not guessing . .don't want it to cloud judgement or experience of the moment.
Used to guess the Friday closing price of gold every week. I'm over it.
Put me down for 161 please!
Obviously a guess that one; however, one thing is for sure- if it somehow manages to keep the manipulators' interest alive for a day and closes between 190-to-194, I'm gonna short 10K towards the close! [I highly doubt if I would get this opportunity].
I think the news media is losing sleep waiting for the story to break.
I think the long toots are scared
I think we may see the opposite of the toombstone we had Friday.
I will put the closing price exactly the same as Fridays closing price 187.40
My feeling is that the institutions will actually spend the money to buy as advertisement and damage control, knowing full well it will bleed off later.It will be the lead story at the end of day and what it says is equivalent to buying a super bowl ad.
I think a drop to 180 will occur and a short squeeze and momo back to where it opened.
The millions it will cost could keep individual investors back in the game until a more gradual sell off is arranged.
Those employees are going to get those new homes one way or another.
If the selling becomes panic, they may not be able to get a full reversal, but as long as a reporter can say that it didn't tank, the pr game was won (at least for monday) and that is when a dozen storys will be written about it.