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  • who_is_your_pappy who_is_your_pappy Feb 14, 2005 3:29 PM Flag

    PREDICTIONS: Hindsight v. Foresight!

    Lots of boasting here every day about how posters are so much smarter than the rest of the world. It's nice to have a yardstick once in awhile! I particularly liked the guarantees by Metalkpretty and other "economists" who said that it is "impossible to price in an unlock expiration."

    Ordered by prediction:
    ======================
    sir_short_machine 124.5
    r0cky22 125
    olivier_lfa 130
    miveymivey 132
    owieu32 142
    profit_of_babble_on 148.5
    fuemailaddress 149.5
    joeld57 150
    optiongirl 152.8
    iwwawgh 157.78
    tucco1968@sbcglobal.net 160
    window_for_insiders_to_sell 161
    itm2000 161
    kevnole 164
    priyankanehru 164.75
    ali_yo_yo 167
    fjodor03 167.5
    odie1234567 168
    jchividian 168
    jchividian 168
    pbajeff 168.2
    pbajeff 168.3
    brcdx 169.78
    hendricm2003 170
    iamfrom2020 170
    hidonggu 170
    mbsklut 170
    investbig2004 170.25
    anantam_02 171
    anantam_02 171
    my1cruz 172
    dslman2 172
    ascetic_trader 172
    donaf 172
    donnie10falcons 173
    donnie10falcons 173
    Ashok4598 174
    BrokerTFS 175
    King_Ozymandias 175
    nkhelh 175.6
    omahabeacheuropene 176
    lordddddddddddddddddddddd 176.5
    orionsentinel 177
    sweires 178.3
    smellinggapig 178.4
    blueline205 178.5
    njswingtrader 179
    jabezbooks 179
    GoldenCityRed 179.2
    dgibson1975/Dave 180
    onehotindiangirl 180
    metalkprettytyppegoodtwo 181.1
    jackel010 181.5
    kpestateplanning 184
    dragn65 184
    kotep1967 184
    jerryj92 184.3
    premiumsucker 185
    pizachit 186
    overstockoverlord 186.2
    the_oracle_us 187.4
    urbanbulldogge 190
    ruxprncd 192
    hedgethestars 192.35
    imgreatestgenius 193
    who_is_your_pappy 193
    swalesidebird 194.76
    jdspeedracer5 195
    axpkodis 195.45
    NICKBAES 196
    tkeubg_wad 197
    atkjhi 198
    RickBalin 198.36
    bite_my_bigg_toe 220
    maybewhoknooows 225


    Alphabetical:
    =====================
    ali_yo_yo 167
    anantam_02 171
    anantam_02 171
    ascetic_trader 172
    Ashok4598 174
    atkjhi 198
    axpkodis 195.45
    bite_my_bigg_toe 220
    blueline205 178.5
    brcdx 169.78
    BrokerTFS 175
    dgibson1975/Dave 180
    donaf 172
    donnie10falcons 173
    donnie10falcons 173
    dragn65 184
    dslman2 172
    fjodor03 167.5
    fuemailaddress 149.5
    GoldenCityRed 179.2
    hedgethestars 192.35
    hendricm2003 170
    hidonggu 170
    iamfrom2020 170
    imgreatestgenius 193
    investbig2004 170.25
    itm2000 161
    iwwawgh 157.78
    jabezbooks 179
    jackel010 181.5
    jchividian 168
    jchividian 168
    jdspeedracer5 195
    jerryj92 184.3
    joeld57 150
    kevnole 164
    King_Ozymandias 175
    kotep1967 184
    kpestateplanning 184
    lordddddddddddddddddddddd 176.5
    maybewhoknooows 225
    mbsklut 170
    metalkprettytyppegoodtwo 181.1
    miveymivey 132
    my1cruz 172
    NICKBAES 196
    njswingtrader 179
    nkhelh 175.6
    odie1234567 168
    olivier_lfa 130
    omahabeacheuropene 176
    onehotindiangirl 180
    optiongirl 152.8
    orionsentinel 177
    overstockoverlord 186.2
    owieu32 142
    pbajeff 168.2
    pbajeff 168.3
    pizachit 186
    premiumsucker 185
    priyankanehru 164.75
    profit_of_babble_on 148.5
    r0cky22 125
    RickBalin 198.36
    ruxprncd 192
    sir_short_machine 124.5
    smellinggapig 178.4
    swalesidebird 194.76
    sweires 178.3
    the_oracle_us 187.4
    tkeubg_wad 197
    tucco1968@sbcglobal.net 160
    urbanbulldogge 190
    who_is_your_pappy 193
    window_for_insiders_to_sell 161

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    • So you arfe saying that you believe the unlock to have been completed in its near-term effects on the stock price?

      Do elaborate, please.

      Best, FM

    • Bo:::::::

      Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

      Always good to see you here.

      Take care.......

      itm2000.

    • itm2000

      A real pleasure to read your standpoint.

      Cheers

      Bo

    • Of the 100 million shares that traded last week how many were insider selling? you will find that it was a very small %

      Insider selling didn't drove the price down.


      << Wednesday and Thursday we dropped down huge. We later learned that on both days there was insider selling going on, methodically driving down the stock all day.>>

    • Go look at the january lockup, it was up the day of. Thats why i predicted up today.

      Where did the volume come from? Weak shorts getting flushed out when it rebounded from 181.

    • Please explain this one to me, pappy: Wednesday and Thursday we dropped down huge. We later learned that on both days there was insider selling going on, methodically driving down the stock all day. Today we got a quick spike down on a number of blocks being sold at the open only, and then a rally. You're telling me that insiders were selling into the rally? Why no buys last week on insider selling but buys today? Makes no sense whatsoever.

      By the way, I suspect MM's took those blocks at 181-85 in order to redistribute them higher and pocket huge gains - and they did it because they have information regarding insider sales in advance, i.e., real selling starts tomorrow or Wed.

      Insider trading activity we have seen does pressure the stock and it's not in 400k blocks. Seems much more likely those were TWX or Sequoia selling to MM's.

      <<<<<As for the lockup not having occurred yet . . . sounds like rubbish to me. You get an awful lot of chatter around here about what people WANT to be true. That one makes no sense. Of course, lockup sales don't happen all at once. There will be plenty more selling. But there's no reason today wouldn't have been the height of it. Selling should follow, more or less, a chi-square distribution (a declining curve over time).>>>>>

    • Thanks, Dave. As for tomorrow, if I had to guess (I don't have to guess, do I?), I would say up. Up for the week before all is said and done. But Google is worth a lot of money right now. I'm not one of the people who see only upside. Far from it. I suspect that there is a lot of downside when the inevitable bumps in the road come. Lockup was a big one, which is why, I think, we saw the 30-point decline after the astonishing earnings report.

      As for the lockup not having occurred yet . . . sounds like rubbish to me. You get an awful lot of chatter around here about what people WANT to be true. That one makes no sense. Of course, lockup sales don't happen all at once. There will be plenty more selling. But there's no reason today wouldn't have been the height of it. Selling should follow, more or less, a chi-square distribution (a declining curve over time).

      So far, those who are energized by the end of lockup are now in control. There's no GOOD reason to believe that continued selling will be more aggressive than continued buying. If anything, I would expect the sellers to have had a greater sense of urgency, and the buyers to persist in greater numbers for a while.

      Disclaimer: I bought back my Feb 180 puts (75% profit) and sold my call (mere 20% profit) at the end of the day today. I'll sell more puts tomorrow only if there is an A.M. price dip.

    • Pappy
      Great call along with Mr. genius on the 193 call.
      I was sitting on a straddle but closed out the put side and am just long on 195 calls. Whats your call for tomorrow? Do you think that the lock up shares did not hit the market like some have said but will tomorrow or is it up from here.
      Thanks
      Nervous Dave

    • LOL. With all the talk of puppetmasters manipulating this stock, I'm sure you'll have lots of folks willing to join the class action!


      Disclaimer: I had a conversation with God yesterday.

    • I'm calling for an SEC probe into maniplation by imgreatestgenius & who_is_your_pappy. HeHe. Good work.

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