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Google Inc. Message Board

  • analyst4you analyst4you Apr 11, 2005 3:05 PM Flag

    The Time Has Come � Let�s Talk EPS

    Earnings� Day is rapidly approaching (after the bell, 4/21, one week from this Thursday), and with it, the promise of renewed volatility, volume, and overall action that has become a trademark of goog in its short life. Bottom line, BIG moves in PPS are expected and as a result, there will be exultant investors, and there will be distraught investors. Which one you�ll be depends on whether you�re long or short, and the market�s reaction to goog�s earnings.

    While the stock bottomed lower than I expected (172 vs. 177), it has rebounded nicely (some 20+ points). What happens from here until earnings depends largely on expectations, and after earnings, the results themselves.

    I have posted ad nauseam about my thoughts/logic regarding goog earnings, how the stage has been set for another �surprise� to the upside, how analysts� estimates would be raised as we headed into earnings (they are: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GOOG), and how all of this will translate into higher PPS in the coming days. (For a recap on my logic, see post 148047.)

    That said, I enjoy reading the different perspectives � from both the long and the short � regulars on this board, and would like to see just what is the board-average estimate for EPS to gather some indication of expectations. (All I ask is that it not be a ridiculously high or low estimate; for sake of this quarter�s EPS, I�ll cap it to within .75 to 1.25.) From previous posts, I have already gleaned victor�s and stockmassacre�s estimates. To that, I added my own: a whopping $1.10/share � an admittedly high estimate but one I feel is possible. As people contribute, I will keep the estimate tabs current, and we can compare how the board feels vs. the analysts. It has been my experience, that any random message board tends to do a better job estimating earnings than these high-dollar Wall St. analysts.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Here�s where it currently stands:

    1.10 analyst4you
    1.05 Stockmassacre
    1.07 victor_lazlo2000

    Other notables I�d like to here from:

    itm2000
    Sitra
    Ac_investing
    Norm_shore
    Urbanbulldogge
    Profit_of_babble_on
    Whos_your_pappy
    Skmirpuri
    Gmadmoni
    Paraf_bagholder
    Whatstherushrelax
    Fwiw2005
    Veryhappyhopping
    Bargesurfer
    BigDaddyCas15
    SLOmark
    Stocktrader897

    Anyone else??

    1.10 Board HIGH Est
    1.05 Board LOW Est
    1.075 Board AVG Est

    This compares with...

    1.13 Analyst HIGH Est
    0.77 Analyst LOW Est
    0.92 Analyst AVG Est

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Analyst4you,

      Thanks for the reminder and the $.88 is fine. :-) I agree that guidance would help the stock because it would take a lot of the mystery out of the numbers and their compilation.

      Thanks again for your work,

      A

    • Still waiting on some of the more notable shorts/bears. So far ALL estimates are well-above consensus estimates. Not until the Sitras, Ac_investing, Urbans, and the like offer their guesses will the Board average be balanced.

      Where we stand so far...

      EPS "Analyst"
      1.16 dmag21
      1.11 FaceMen
      1.10 analyst4you
      1.08 itm2000
      1.07 victor_lazlo2000
      1.05 stockmassacre
      1.03 BigDaddyCas15
      0.95 Profit_of_babble_on

      Waiting on...

      Sitra
      Ac_investing
      Norm_shore
      Urbanbulldogge
      Whos_your_pappy
      Skmirpuri
      Gmadmoni
      Paraf_bagholder
      Whatstherushrelax
      Fwiw2005
      Veryhappyhopping
      Bargesurfer
      SLOmark
      Stocktrader897



      1.16 Board HIGH Estimate
      0.95 Board LOW Estimate
      1.07 Board AVERAGE Estimate
      1.08 Board MEDIAN Estimate

      This compares with...

      1.13 Analyst HIGH Est
      0.77 Analyst LOW Est
      0.92 Analyst AVG Est

      • 2 Replies to analyst4you
      • EPS Author
        1.16 dmag21
        1.11 FaceMen
        1.10 analyst4you
        1.10 ppgchi26
        1.08 itm2000
        1.07 victor_lazlo2000
        1.05 stockmassacre
        1.03 BigDaddyCas15
        1.01 Whos_your_pappy
        0.95 Profit_of_babble_on
        0.92 Sitra
        0.90 Urbanbulldogge

        Norm_shore
        Skmirpuri
        Gmadmoni
        Paraf_bagholder
        Whatstherushrelax
        Fwiw2005
        Veryhappyhopping
        Bargesurfer
        SLOmark
        Stocktrader897

        1.16 Board HIGH Estimate
        0.90 Board LOW Estimate
        1.04 Board AVERAGE Estimate
        1.06 Board MEDIAN Estimate

        This compares with...

        1.13 Analyst HIGH Est
        0.77 Analyst LOW Est
        0.92 Analyst AVG Est

      • Care to throw your 1Q05 EPS guess in the mix? Certainly you must have SOME feel for what goog will report?? Sitra you've posted how your "spot-checks" indicated weakness. AC you're short - must have your reasons? Urban, did you cover after all at your cost basis (190) never to return, or do you have an estimate to share? Pappy? Others?

    • About 2 weeks ago, and for several weeks, people were yelling that the P&F charts were telling us all that we were headed straight for 143 nonstop.

      I don't know how some of these people make money by relying on other than good intuitive as well as logical judgement; decent company knowledge; decent company fundamentals; total familiarity with the stock's behaviour patterns; grasp of pending news; AND ALSO TA/Charting. None of these things alone will work.

      It became VERY evident to me that several posters here....including a few "in the know" shorters, had major flaws in their determination of various IMPORTANT chart signals and interpretations...including such VITAL things as CORRECTLY ascertaining the 10, 50, and 100 day SMAs AND EMAs, as well as HOW TO PROPERLY DECIPHER THE MACD!! VERY key!
      BBands, Stochastics, etc, all help, as well...but not like the first ones I listed (upon which most other indicators are modeled anyway!).

      Had they done so, their calculations would have not been so far off the mark and they would not have missed VERY blatant indicators IMMEDIATELY prior to this run up above 179.

      Got to look at the WHOLE package and know what you're seeing. Even then, it is VERY difficult at times.

      itm2000.

    • ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    • Actually, the one's who are "laughing their arse's off" are those who bought GOOG below $180.00 recently.

      Laughing indeed...all the way to the bank.

      GOOG is a coiled spring here...next leg up begins tomorrow. Mark my words.

    • "....that support is now ROCK SOLID, as evident in the P&F charts."

      LMAO - Google's as "ROCK SOLID" as CSCO, JDSU, EMC, SUNW, INTC, AMAT, MSFT, HWP were in 2000. And, those companies actually had proprietary products.

      Google's got search...........alone.

    • .95 and 1.1 billion rev

    • JUST KIDDING SHORTS!! LOL!!!

      Now, back to reality.

      GOOG UP UP UP.

      PS.
      In case shorts missed it, GOOG closed up over a buck while the NDX close down again. You fools are fighting a battle that cannot be won :)

    • <<You will most likely see a nice spike in the last 1/2 hour of trading. MM's took GOOG as low as they could and ran into the 20dma support. That support is now ROCK SOLID, as is evident in the P&F charts.>>

      FANTASTIC CALL!!!

      Nice job adding below $193 :)

      What charting site do you use?

    • 1.11 EPS

    • View More Messages
 
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