I do think 0.78 would cause a severe correction. Anything near the average estimate of 0.77 is bound to have negative consequences. Anywhere from 5-20 points down, depending on which side of that number they hit.
I think anything under the CSFB 0.72 would cause a steep slide with prolonged selling -- until next quarter or until there is a policy change about guidance. It would extinguish the pie-in-the-sky dreams of the average stock-holder. And it would signal to major investors that the growth is petering out more quickly than they thought. Could take 20% off the price overnight. Longshot . . . but that's the downside, IMO.
Given the frenzied state of buyers in the past, I suspect that anything near the high estimate of 0.84 would set off another crazy round of buying. Maybe up to 210? Maybe higher. Definitely a new high. But then probably still plenty of profit-taking.
Good post. I am not great with numbers or p/e as far as stock price. I liked your post because you gave your estimate of what each range would do(iyo). Very good breakdown and estimates. Sounds realistic. I am mostly trading goog on momentum and manipulation. After watching the funds (mostly goldman) walk her up and down, patterns emerge that can be traded on.
For me, this earnings play is risky either way. Options are high and that will keep me out of a big position. You do your homework, like others here. If goog hits 1 cent above and the stock goes up 10 dollars at open, I'll have a good idea what to do. As you have seen, this thing is pumped in after hours and at open many days. It can be tricky to trade. You gave me a good feel of what a numbers guy is looking for and I can use it to help me look for an entry point. Thanks Pappy Hope you do well.