If this stcok opens up down 5-8 points on Monday, I will buy a ton. You will see. This is the same stock AFTER the article was written that it was before. All you shorts might be correct. It might go down further. BUT, nobody truly knows where the bottom might be----that is for sure. Otherwise everyone could get rich. It could be right here at 355, where the FIBONACCI numbers indicate it should be, or it could be lower. Or it could be higher if it does not open up down too far. Shorts I am glad you have made some money. The pros will be buying like crazy at some point on Monday. Remember, when there is negative news you have to BUY to make money. That is what all the contrarians do. When there is POSITIVE news you have to SELL the news. With all the people going short now, I am looking forward to the massive SHORT COVERINING that will happen. Good luck everyone-----
<<<this stock is driven by the options market and is therefore controlled on a short term basis by it. As such, just as the stock was contained on the upside for every option expiration, it will be contained on the downside for the same, as it is in the interest of those who control the stock's dynamics to do so.>>>
With all due respect, what in the hell are you talking about? Controlled?...contained? Look at a lifetime GOOG chart and tell us how good a job the options MMs have done in "controlling" this stock so far. This sucker more than quintupled in a year and a half, and then got sliced by over a quarter in less than a month. Three or four significant gaps on the way up and two large downside gaps this year alone. You call that "controlled"? I beg to differ.
Look, I have no doubt that some amount of manipulation takes place (or is at least attempted), but it should be quite clear from the chart that this stock is gonna go where it wants to go, and whoever ends up on the wrong side of general consensus, whichever direction it happens to swing at any given time, is gonna get run over bigtime...MM or not.
You are welcome. Good luck
I plan to cover short , some in premarket and some on early trading on monday. 95 percent chance we will see a relief rally , which could be quite surprising and shocking to those who short in premarket and early in regular session. After that , and especially after friday's option expiration on the 17th, I expect weakness to plague the stock for some time until either it becomes more fairly valued or the fundamental earnings picture does an about face to the positive as it was not too distant ago.
I enjoyed reading your post and found it very helpful. I took a year's leave from my job to day trade, and yes, I love it, but why is all my hair turning gray? This stock is too freaking much for me, though. I went long on Friday for reasons that seemed good at the time (I thought it hit A bottom if not THE bottom), but this is the last time I'm messing with Google---I spend my weekends obsessing over Google regardless of what side I happen to be on.
GOOG; see Cover Story) said in its fourth-quarter earnings release that option costs will be "significantly greater" in 2006 than 2005's $200 million, reflecting its adoption of option-expensing this year. Google issues a mix of options and restricted stock, and the combined impact could be $1 a share.
well how can the longs justify what Google mangement has said....
Toast. with my coffee on monday plz
actually in the case of GOOG, you are completely wrong, the options definitely drive the stock action, and especially as it nears an option expiration. Or are you paid by option market makers to post otherwise? I used to work for options market makers, before the internet days were common. You can't fool me , lol
It is the other way around my friend.
sorry to burst your bubble.
let me see there is time premium of oh lets say for example 5 bucks....
I leg off one side of my option then go off and buy the stock really not caring if I am of by few quarters.... or is it the otherway around. think long and hard.
To get Delta neutral lets see I go long the stock not caring about price... and get off a put and a call right.?
hmmmm You lost me ok.... here is another thought
If the institutions say "sell" then I as market maker - Which I was ....knock the piss out of it and hope my inventory is net long on the bounce right.???
Buying reverse the scenario....
Do not justify options in this case...
Tell me where was the "MAX PAIN" last options exp look how many otions traded on the way down do not be foolish. The market it is dynamic....go with the flow.
Just Trade it
Now get a life and stop justifying a long (short) position
Keep tight stops key
Very good post. I can identify with much of your post and its sentiments.
Just a comment about one aspect which I think is important. I have found that it is better for me to have the fortitude of one's convictions as you suggest, but to take some profits , and to take things off the table. IE, in a case like this, I will cover my short position, or at least a portion of it, and then reshort it after the recovery rally that we both anticipate. I do better that way, as they say, "bulls and bears can make money , but pigs get slaughtered". Also since there is no capital gains treatment on a short position, I see no advantage to holding a short position long term. Good luck friend!