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Google Inc. Message Board

  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Feb 21, 2006 6:52 PM Flag

    Total Advertising Market ~ 280B

    in the US.
    Google's share is 6B (2%).
    Why does Google have market cap of 40% (110B)?

    Is Google really going to take 40% of the entire advertising market, TV, newspapers, radio, internet, billboards, 40% of *all* of that?

    If they do a fantastic job for years to come, they'll get 10% and a well-earned 30B market cap. $100 per share.

    Fundamentals. Ain't they great?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • ONce again, the point is you called out GOOGs market cap as 40% of the US ad budget as OUTRAGEOUS- obviously you missed the fact that this 300 billion number is PER YEAR!

      Then when I called you on that you tried to backpedal and say that growth companies tend towards the ANNUAL SALES that they can capture when the growth subsides- here is your quote!

      <<That *is* price/sales. That's what we're talking about, sk8r boi! The market cap of a growth stock will tend toward the annual sales that they can eventually capture when growth is over. Repeat that sentence to yourself until it makes sense.>>

      Except microsoft, cisco etc who are OBVIOUSLY NO LONGER growth companies are selling for much, much more than their annual sales, msft being about 10x.

      rather than discuss what you posted you tend to change the subject and get nasty.

      ok, par for the course I guess.

    • Kid, I'm starting to think that maybe you really believe your own BS. But your ego is what's giving you problems, not me. Trust me, you did not 'outwit' anyone by discovering, just tonight, that "annual revenues" are "revenues per year." Most of us knew that before we started buying stocks, ok?

      I'll try to deal with your latest crop of nonsense as quickly as possible:

      1. Microsoft is selling for about 6.5x sales, not 10x. (oops!)

      2. Microsoft ("NO GROWTH") is still growing strongly, income up 11% each of the past two years. (oops!)

      3. *Unlike* most companies, and *unlike* Google, Microsoft has *no competition*. So they make 32% net margins. Google doesn't make that much even now, and life is a lot harder on the plateau.

      Get it?

    • oh so when you are outwitted, you resort to profanity.

      typical.

      again, msft- 30 billion per year valued 10x that, with NO GROWTH.

      How long before GOOG does 30 billion per year? My guess? 4 years.

    • You're insane. Look up "annual." It comes right before "anus."

      Doomed idiot pigfucker.

    • typo 30 million = 30 billion sorry

    • <<<That *is* price/sales. That's what we're talking about, sk8r boi! The market cap of a growth stock will tend toward the annual sales that they can eventually capture when growth is over.>>

      Oh is that right?

      Well lets see then msft does 30 million per year, can hardly be called a GROWTH STOCK, and is valued at 10x that.

      So your point is what?

      Why don't you just admit you missed the fact that the size of the ad market was a PER YEAR number.

    • LOL, *yes*, "annual revenue" *MEANS* per year, sk8r boi! That's exactly what I've been saying.

      That *is* price/sales. That's what we're talking about, sk8r boi! The market cap of a growth stock will tend toward the annual sales that they can eventually capture when growth is over. Repeat that sentence to yourself until it makes sense.

      *Because* up on that plateau there's competition, get it, they might earn 5% of sales, and sell at 20x earnings, and 20 x 5% is 1.0 times fucking sales. (Yes, annual sales, revenues, per fucking *year* sk8r boi!)

      So if in some crack-pipe sk8r boi scenario Google one day captures 40% of all advertising revenue, all media, some day, then its share price will go to about what it is today.

      Translation: GOogle will have to be incredibly lucky to ever justify today's valuation.

    • sounds good, I had a little bidu for a while but sold at a loss last year. I decided I like goog better. GOOG is going into india and china. Just more money to be made.

    • this has to be BY FAR the most ridiculous stupid post I have read on this board.

      GOOG has a market cap worth 40% of the total US only ad market FOR ONE YEAR.

      Get it- FOR ONE YEAR. The US-only ad market is 280 billion PER YEAR.

      Logic is lost on some of these fools.

      <<<Total Advertising Market ~ 280B
      By: astral_tsar
      Date: 02/21/06 06:52 pm

      in the US.
      Google's share is 6B (2%).
      Why does Google have market cap of 40% (110B)?

      Is Google really going to take 40% of the entire advertising market, TV, newspapers, radio, internet, billboards, 40% of *all* of that?

      If they do a fantastic job for years to come, they'll get 10% and a well-earned 30B market cap. $100 per share.

      Fundamentals. Ain't they great?>>>

      • 2 Replies to daffyskater
      • Amazing ignorance. You never heard of price/sales, yet you're out there buying stocks.

        Price to sales, annual sales each year, dude, tends to be about 1 once an industry hits the plateau. Say net margin is 5%, then that's a P/E of 20. Should I go over that again? They don't *earn* the whole *revenue* every year.

        Jesus H. Christ in a chicken basket, some people fool ya by walking around on their hind legs.

      • "this has to be BY FAR the most ridiculous stupid post I have read on this board"

        ========================================

        NOPES, IT'S THE ONE YOU POSTED!

        ========================================
        Re: Limbaugh boycott
        by: daffyskater (40/F/San Mateo, CA)
        Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/28/06 10:22 pm
        Msg: 543272 of 629976

        I'll say what I want to about iraq, if your son dies its your problem not mine.

        Your son and those that fight there have made the lives of half the country much worse than it was when Saddam Hussein was president (the women). Anybody who fights in Iraq has blood on their hands as far as I am concerned.

 
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