Glad to see you getting cautious about today.
My feeling is that a market snapback tomorrow may be good for 3-4 points of consolidation and close aboe the 20-day line, which is definitely neccesary and healthy. Monday may prove to be a nice run.
Well, it depends. To say that MA people get slaughtered is a broad statement and akin to believing there is a holy grail to trading.
Each stock has it's own characteristics, and i think it's essential to study the history of that stock before formulating a system for trading it.
You should invest in some backtesting software and back test any stock you trade. If a stock has a history of showing breakouts/breakdowns at certain MAs or EMAs, then you have the upperhand.
the thing about GOOG is that it doesn't have a much of a history, it's only about 2+ years old (publically traded). So given that the stock offers a volatility that many traders can't resist, and with a lack of historical data to back test, traders will use what they can, and so in this case, the nearest resistance are those EMAs and MAs.
Galaxy, have you done trades using MA?
because from my experience, MA people seem to get slaughtered alot on the intraday chart, i can tell because the price stops slightly at MA and then it continues... The trendlines seem more powerful to me.
Thanks Galaxy. Very helpful. I think you're right about the caution amoung traders. Everyone is in and out for a quick profit. For that reason we may not even make it to the analyst meeting before profits are taken. After that any news from the meeting could spark another rebound.
I would think the markets may stay on the soft side, and that any top might not be until late in March or even April as earnings start to be anticipated. If the fed makes it clear that interest rates are going to stop rising, that would probably lead to a rally also.
Have a great evening. Signing off!
Well, i have to say i didn't like that it failed twice to hold the 20ema.
What's happening here i think is you have a lot of traders day trading the stock. There is no precendence right now...prior to last month, goog has never traded below it's major long term supports. As a result, traders are quick on the triggers and using what they have in front of them...they are taking profits on the major resistances and buying back lower for multiple trades each day. So right now, the only resistance in front of them is that 20ema. That said, i think goog can take it out, though i can't say for sure if it will be tomorrow (i believe it will, but won't put it in writing, just simply cause it's a friday..and there's always anxiety about holding over weekends)
The plus is it doesn't appear they are shorting much and the current picture is still bullish, yet. the path of least resistance is on the sides of bulls still.
The 20ema is a good place to pause. It will give traders a chance to analyze this an realize although the volume is low, the higher volume is coming from up moves. that i think will give them the courage to take her above 20. if it does that, the 50ema then 400 isn't far off.
my biggest concern is the markets themselves. while goog doesn't seem to be paying much attention, if the markets decide to take a dive, i don't think it will be able to ignore that. Is the markets going to do that? i don't know. I'd like to see and i believe the S&P can move higher to take out it's January highs and challenge it's 2001 highs. But there are good arguements as to why that may not happen and that a top is not far off. My take, the markets have a bit more to go before the top, but that top could be in march sometime.
Too funny. At least you admit it and play off it, unlike ITM!
Do you put any weight into the way GOOG hit the 20 day EMA and bounced off? Somewhat I think it was due to the Nasdaq late day fall off. I'd feel alot better if we closed above that level tomorrow.
With most sellers taking a "wait and see" until the analyst meeting, it seems like a continued rise to $390-395 is likely don't you?