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Google Inc. Message Board

  • optionsjb optionsjb Mar 2, 2006 8:02 PM Flag

    How bearish is GOOG insider selling????

    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- According to Argus Research, publishers of the Vickers Weekly Insider Report newsletter, insider selling at Google over the last six months is off the charts.
    Consider the Insider Index reading that Argus currently calculates for Google (GOOG :
    google inc cl a
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    Last: 376.45+11.65+3.19%
    6:40pm 03/02/2006
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    GOOG376.45, +11.65, +3.2% ) . This Index is based on "each company's insider transactions for the past six months," taking into account factors such as "the number of buy and sell transactions ... the percentage change that occurs in an insider's holdings with each transaction, unanimity among insiders at a given company, the dollar value of a transaction, and reversals in transaction patterns."
    Google's current Insider Index reading, according to the issue of the Vickers Weekly Insider Report we received Monday night, is minus 3,375. No other reading comes even close.
    Chart of GOOG
    For example, the vast majority of insider index values that Argus calculates range between minus 100 and plus 100. After Google's, the next-most negative Insider Index reading currently is for salesforce.com (CRM :
    Salesforce.com, Inc.
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    Last: 36.72-0.09-0.24%
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    CRM36.72, -0.09, -0.2% ) , at minus 1,121 - just one third as negative, in other words.
    On the face of it, Google's hugely negative Insider Index would appear to be a very bearish omen for the company's stock. And, based on the emails I have received on the subject recently, many of you think it is foolish for investors to continue buying the stock in the face of such heavy selling

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    • You've had millions (or billions even) of dollars worth of company stock sitting around waiting for the right moment to sell? I highly doubt it but neither one of us can prove it one way or the other in this forum. If this is true, how long did you hold? How close to the peak was the stock when you sold? What company was it?

      But you are partially right. You sell your shares - crappy or otherwise - to turn them into cash. But even if you believe that your stock price is going to the moon (Mars for GOOG, it went past the moon last year), the smart thing to do is to start cashing in. Buy your mansion and yacht and guarantee family wealth for generations. Holding all your shares because you think your 2 billion might turn into 4 billion is crazy.

      I don't read every announcement about Google - too many. What I do is follow trends in the stock price. I trade on sentiment and do fairly well. It might be luck but that doesn't change the results I've had so far.

    • You say:

      "The key thing is it has nothing to do with the needs of the actual TV and radio *businesses*."

      See, this is what I mean: you don't get it. Let's stick to TV. Are you aware of Tivo? Have you thought about what DVR technology is about to do to the entire fiscal foundation of television advertising? If you are, then you're aware that over time it's going to be completely demolished and rebuilt as a digital 1-to-1 medium. Do you know what this means? Do you understand what I'm referring to? If so, which companies do you think will design and maintain the software that runs these systems? Microsoft? Maybe. Google? Maybe. The cable/telco companies? Maybe. Some combination of the above. Almost certainly. Got any other ideas? No? Then shut the fuck up and stop blabbering like a junior high schooler about shit you don't understand.

    • Synergy.

      LOL

      Just like the speach the big wig at Barings Bank gave to his shareholders just before the collapse cause by Nick Leeson.

    • Why did you selectively leave the rest of the article out of your post that talked about this selling as not being "uncommon" and pre-planned months in advance. Additionally, most of the shares sold by the insiders were at lower price levels than today.

      Lets provide all the information, not just selective information that mets your bearish posture.

      Best of luck to all!

    • Hey, those insiders who sold 6B dollars worth already ... you think they expect the shares they sold will hit $540 by year end?

      • 2 Replies to astral_tsar
      • I crudely eyeballed $1.5b this year!!! That sure is a lot of dosh!!! Hmmm now about those Puts. I was illustrating the Google experience to my wife the other day. Did a couple of searches,found what I wanted, didn't dare click on any ads because of spyware. How much did Google make from me? $0. How much will they make from me? $0. How much will they make from the average surfer who is sick of spyware? $0. That is one heck of a business!!! The question is have I got the nerve to punt $5k and ignore the price for a few months till it dips below $100? Mind you at that point it'll make the fall of JDSU look like a municipal bond.

      • They've got millions upon millions in their bank accounts and a bunch more stock to sell. They also are selling for 100% profit. I don't think they're as concerned about the stock price as the retail investor.

 
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