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Alphabet Inc. Message Board

  • nathannetman nathannetman Mar 11, 2006 1:06 PM Flag

    goog WILL miss Q1 earnings estimates


    i've run some numbers for you.

    Here's what's to consider, if goog can achieve the Revenue estimate of $1.44B, which I personality have a hard time believing they can based on the hints and warnings from the CFO.

    And, they can straighten out the tax situation and get it back down. If you recall, they had to pay a higher tax because of revene imbalance between domestic / international revenues.

    (Q4 Tax pecentage was 41% - - their traditional and normalized tax percentage is about 30 - 31%.)

    My best estimates have the EPS coming in at

    $1.79 per share.

    That's still of $0.20 per share.

    Therefore, they must manage the tax situation, manage less shares outstanding growth(which grew from 290M in Q4 to 304M in Q1), manage expenses, manage insider stock option expensing all the while they blow out the revenue number of $1.44B.

    Team, I"m telling you, this quagmire for goog represents a daunting task.

    I obviously don't know what the actual numbers will be and all of this is from my best estimation and speculation based on numbers I've retrieved from goog itself (see link):

    But, I"m 99.9% convinced that they will miss their earnings estimate of $1.99 per share even if they can meet or beat their revenue goal of $1.44B.

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