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  • itm2000 itm2000 Mar 31, 2006 2:03 PM Flag

    HEDGE YOUR BETS! WHAT TO EXPECT::::::::

    As everyone here knows, I ALWAYS hedge my plays. It has helped a LOT at times. Usually, it is not needed....like insurance.

    This is just a reminder to be decently hedged WAY before 3pm today LATEST!!! Whether you are short or long.

    If you are long on GOOG shares, you should have been accumulating SOME puts along the way. If not, do so ASAP if you want to hedge. You COULD also write some covered calls on GOOG peaks against your shares, but I'd suggest puts over that. Especially if you are VERY heavy on shares and entered near, at, or above the current market.

    If you are short GOOG shares, you should definitely have been accumulated some calls before now. If not, buy at least SOME and do it ASAP. You could also write puts as a hedge when and if we drop again, but buying calls is more suggested. Especially if you're over exposed on your short position.

    Owners of calls and/or puts, you should be set before 3pm with a put/call ratio that you feel good about. Especially if you are holding heavy amounts of puts or calls.....then you MUST be hedged to at least SOME degree with the opposite side of what you're heavy on. I have a bullish bias, so I'm going to be FAR heavier on calls than puts...and over 90% of my calls are OUTSIDE of APRIL...while 50% of my puts are in April. Keep in mind that I took VERY heavy profits already (Wednseday) and only re-invested a small amount of that back into April calls at 390 strikes and up (390s have been green to very green from the getgo).....so, I am pretty much 'risk free' on my April positions and I have time on my side outside of April (I took profits on my calls beyond April on Wednsesday, too, on about 30-40% of positions). So, weigh out your own situation and act accordingly, naturally.

    We could see VERY HEAVY volatility and volume about 3:30pm or sooner which then turns into a dramatic rise or fall therafter or in AH. I tend to be biased on the rise side, but am ready for anything. You should be, too.

    If you get a HUGE spike before the close, TAKE SOME PROFITS!!

    itm2000.

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    • As everyone here knows, I ALWAYS hedge my plays. It has helped a LOT at times. Usually, it is not needed....like insurance.

      This is just a reminder to be decently hedged WAY before 3pm today LATEST!!! Whether you are short or long.

      If you are long on GOOG shares, you should have been accumulating SOME puts along the way. If not, do so ASAP if you want to hedge. You COULD also write some covered calls on GOOG peaks against your shares, but I'd suggest puts over that. Especially if you are VERY heavy on shares and entered near, at, or above the current market.

      If you are short GOOG shares, you should definitely have been accumulated some calls before now. If not, buy at least SOME and do it ASAP. You could also write puts as a hedge when and if we drop again, but buying calls is more suggested. Especially if you're over exposed on your short position.

      Owners of calls and/or puts, you should be set before 3pm with a put/call ratio that you feel good about. Especially if you are holding heavy amounts of puts or calls.....then you MUST be hedged to at least SOME degree with the opposite side of what you're heavy on. I have a bullish bias, so I'm going to be FAR heavier on calls than puts...and over 90% of my calls are OUTSIDE of APRIL...while 50% of my puts are in April. Keep in mind that I took VERY heavy profits already (Wednseday) and only re-invested a small amount of that back into April calls at 390 strikes and up (390s have been green to very green from the getgo).....so, I am pretty much 'risk free' on my April positions and I have time on my side outside of April (I took profits on my calls beyond April on Wednsesday, too, on about 30-40% of positions). So, weigh out your own situation and act accordingly, naturally.

      We could see VERY HEAVY volatility and volume about 3:30pm or sooner which then turns into a dramatic rise or fall therafter or in AH. I tend to be biased on the rise side, but am ready for anything. You should be, too.

      If you get a HUGE spike before the close, TAKE SOME PROFITS!!

      itm2000.

    • Okay, here it IS. I am long some closely written calls with a BIAS towards selling some way OTM puts also leveraged with a hedge biased to the up or DOWN side of the spike. I AM sitting here staring at quite a SPIKE. As ALL of you are aware, I made millions on wednesday and took my LOVEly lady DANCING with 5% of the profits, big night WOOHOO.

      So either buy or sell some calls or puts NOW because all of you KNOW where I stand. Above all ALWAYS hedge! LOL! I will post early this evening or tomorrow the exact positions you should be taking now. In the mean time, very busy, yes very very BUSY buying and selling hundreds of thousands of puts and or calls each day.

      itm2000

    • So far this is the second day in a row of doji. Right now there is no sense of direction for this stock.

      If the stock goes up a little in the final hour, it is still a crap shoot.

      If the stock sells off in the final hour to close below 379.50, then we have a "Three Inside Down" candlestick formation marking a bearish reversal. It is the only high reliability scenario given the recent trading action of the last few days.

      You are encouraging gambling with April call options. I would not be surprised at all if the rest of April is ranged bound in a sideways movement that can cause the OTM April calls to lose badly.

      Since Wednesday the April strike 420 calls have lost nearly 50% from their intraday high. Anyone who bought during the mania you created by your emotional posting around $398 price in the final hour of Wednesday trading when you were advising to load up on OTM calls has lost almost half their money in just 48 hours.

      • 1 Reply to BrokerTFS
      • Broker:

        INET shows a major seller avalanche even though the price is rising. My feeling is that time is now on the side of the S&P funds, strangely. They've gotten the majority of their shares by now and hedge funds need to unwind bigtime to avoid a hangover tomorrow. Not a pretty picture. The only one with an incentive to pump the stock is Goldman, and right now a few points won't make too much of a difference in their fee.

        Although the ticker looks wild we need to also remember the scale of things - that we've been in a 5-point range all day. Nothing to get super-excited about.

    • tacked_up::::::::::::::::

      OK, buddy....hope I was of some help to you.

      Good luck, compadre!

      itm2000.

    • if you cannot discern the difference between itm2000 and ittrn2000, you should not be playing with the big boys....

    • diceinavice::::::::::::::

      Uh-Oh! Looks like I hit a nerve!

      Take your meds. You don't want another lobotomy, do you!?

      That a boy.....

      itm2000.

    • new_public_profile_020206 new_public_profile_020206 Mar 31, 2006 2:52 PM Flag

      Listen you mother f er!!

      when do i dump the 55k in puts i just got based on your after the bell news??

      huh!!!

    • If I remember correctly, you were expecting GOOG to go to 600? no? How did you make money being wrong?

    • mikey::::::::::::::::::

      In fact, 400 was a bottom, if you mean that fateful day on JAN 20. I actually thought it was going to drop to 350 or lower......as it did many days later. I made a LOT of money that day (Jan 20) by just dumping shares and calls and buying up huge volumes of OTM puts at several strikes below 450 at from the 440s on down to the 400s (it was an OE Friday, so they cost virtually NOTHING and gave as much as 20 to 1 leverage in about an hour or so! Very cool day!).

      BTW, it bounced about 20-30 points on Monday, so it WAS the bottom of THAT freefall. Just like the 330 area has been a damn good bottom of late.

      I'm basically talking about a major descending scallop trend.....a cascading waterfall "crash" which hit and splashed up instantly. A bottom on THAT type of QUICK fall is what I was refering to when I told tacked_up to SELL INSTANTLY his puts if he gets a HUGE bottoming like that. Hell....who needs to get beyond that kind of greed.

      That's all I was saying.

      Good enough??

      itm2000.

    • rotflmao !!!!

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