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Alphabet Inc. Message Board

  • traderj_fromsi traderj_fromsi Jul 28, 2006 4:31 PM Flag

    SevenMile - "GOOF"

    If you had any basis for fact or relevance to your posts, you might actually be worth listening to. Yet you do not. You state "when are you going to learn" yet you throw out statistics that and "analysis" that does nothing other than to show how naive you really are to trading, especially in GOOG.

    I have followed a lot of your posts and you have yet to make even a single objective feasible argument regarding GOOG, to the upside or the downside. Quite frankly, your level of ignorance is truly daunting and displays all too clearly why the Yahoo boards are largely devoid of any worth.

    If you learn how to trade in the near term, I want you to focus on the balance between positive and negative catalysts in an issue as they relate to the broader markets and the trends. You then need to relate these trends back into the stock in order to assess a direction based on the information present.

    GOOG has very very few negative catalysts working against it right now into a market that is getting stronger. The click fraud lawsuit, which was largely unimportant any way in the short term, is now behind GOOG for the most part and the mid-east crisis that is weighing on the US economy in the way of energy cost is coming to an end again.

    Then, consider that the chance of a rate hike now in August is below 25% now and you have the makings for a late summer rally.

    Now, consider that GOOG as the leader in growth has been on the back burner for some time now after descending out of the upper 420s, you have to ask yourself "what are the catalysts for a future fall?".

    Earnings were surprisingly good in what is usually one of their weakest quarters, that is just a fact. In a market where fear ran the streets, GOOG fell 10% from recent highs on the heels of the YHOO numbers. Since that time, it has reestablished itself as the market darling in the way of future growth and dominance, let alone brand leverage.

    As witnessed by declining volumes into the decline, GOOG downside is losing steam just as the upside lost steam going into earnings in the 420s.

    I purchased more Jan 07 400s solely based on this fact yesterday because it is getting obvious to me that the removal of negative catalysts and declining volume is forecasting the end of the decline. As it happened, today was the turn. I would prefer to see a day of follow through tomorrow but the markets aren't open and now we have to wait.

    But the point is, if we get follow through on Monday into ANY volume, the trend will have been reversed and the sideline money will start rolling back into GOOG for the growth that they have proven ... going into their strongest quarters.

    Moreover, the option premiums which are always compressed during these summer months make the 07 calls look very cheap. You could have played the same strategy last year .... all that needs to happen is for GOOG to continue their good earnings to justify their very attractive valuations.

    So, do yourself a favor (forget anyone else), stop showing your naivete on issues surrounding GOOG and trading in general as your "analysis" is lacking even a remote degree of real world application. You are simply spewing numbers in hopes of proving your incorrect assumptions.

    If you are truly trading on your own thoughts and advice, I truly give you this advice .... put down keyboard and back away. You are the type of trader who were laid out in the collapse of the bubble.

    I have been trading since 1989 and have seen your type come and go. I suggest to you the latter.

    Cheers.

    Tj

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