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  • perlandc perlandc Sep 21, 2006 11:45 PM Flag

    Why GOOG is in danger of fall?

    I saw one of your strategies is to buy $220 Jan2008 PUT.
    You are expecting a big drop from now on to Jan2008. While your PUT far beyond the monday. Even $50 drop, your gain will be only $10-$13.

    If you are so sure GOOG will drop before JAN2008, why don't you buy deep ITM put? Wouldn't that be much more simple for you?

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    • ;))) That is a common mistake for average traders, wishing get rich on one big hit. I never bet on that. I always take profit on 3-5% and if I am lucky and got a 10%+ day, I will definitely give it a trailing stop to protect my gain.

      To make a 50% gain is very hard, but to make 10 5% gain trades are very easy. And there is always a risk and reward issue in there. To buy ITM Jan 08 calls will need to set a huge amount fund aside, are you willing to do so?

      Jan 08 220 put only about $5 a piece, 10 contracts on cost $5K, If you go with Jan 410 put @ 53.6, that will need $53.6K and you need to see GOOG close below 356.4 to make you break even on OE. So, you are setting $53K aside for 2 years doing nothing and not sure what the final result will be.

      And Jan 220 Put is different, first this is a bet trade, betting on the big dive to happen, if not, you can always salvage $2-3 points out of it easy. The risk is very low. If it does dive, you can easily locking 300-500% gain overnight. Good enough. Right?

      And don�t think $50 drop on GOOG is big drop, you can see many $40 stocks drop >$5 over night, INSP just dropped 22% ($5) overnight after earning report, if this 22% happens to GOOG, GOOG need to drop $88, that will put GOOG @ $310 level, that is only 9 steps away from ITM for 220 put, and if you look at close today, you can see that is equivalent to strike @ 320 for today, you put will worth about 20 then, not to mention after a big dive like that, GOOG will more likely to sink further.

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