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  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Nov 22, 2006 4:50 PM Flag

    Q4 Earnings Date?

    Last year GOOG announced at the end of January. There are no news releases on Google investor relations. There are no dates in Yahoo's earnings calendar so I don't believe that the date has been set in stone.

    I would be a seller into high IV prior to earnings. I personally wouldn't be a holder through Q4. Both revenue and EPS are going to be very difficult targets. The TAC adjusted revenue target is $2.18 billion and GOOG reported $1.86 billion last quarter. This is a 17.2% increase.

    The targets for the year have been:

    Q1 target $1.97
    Q1 Posted $2.29

    Q2 Target $2.22
    Q2 Posted $2.49

    Q3 Target $2.42
    Q3 Posted: $2.62

    Q4 Target: $2.89

    The targets for Q2 and Q3 where at a lower points than the actual earnings the prior quarter. Q4 is much higher than actual. Now, I am not predicting a miss but the numbers will be the toughest target for the year both revenue and EPS. If the revenue target is achieved, making EPS will come down to taxes and expenses.

    I personally wouldn't bet for or against Q4. I guess I am just a little conservative. Have a happy Thanksgiving.

    GL

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    • Thanks - appreciate the post. Puts it into a lot of perspective.

      I am smart enough to know that I stand a better chance of picking the winner of the super bowl than I do of knowing whether GOOG will hit, miss, or hit, but not enough over to please wall street. Hence, I will not be long options at earnings, and generally only play them after earnings, in near months, after the IV has gone down a bit.

 
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