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Alphabet Inc. Message Board

  • sirrells sirrells Oct 12, 2007 12:43 PM Flag

    What do you all think of the Dec. 770's @ 5.70?

    good or bad speculative trade?
    Thanks I have no position as yet in Goog

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    • Bad idea. Right now, before earnings there is a very high premium on options. But after earnings, watch the premiums drop. You may still lose money after a big GOOG move, when you take into account the premium decay.

    • Very bad idea. These are almost guarenteed to be zero afterh earnings. GOOG does not move as much as we think through earnings. If GOOG is not at like $730.00 after earnings 770's will be at a loss. The will be close to zero if GOOG is under $700.00.

      I would personally play into earnings and stay away from any long option strategies.

      If you want to make a specualtive play, go deep in the money. The will be expensive and will leverage your gain but they will also leverage your loss.



    • rodgwag Oct 12, 2007 1:15 PM Flag

      Because of volatility this position could return two to three times your investment even if your options never get in the money. Is it risky? Yes. Like you I am presently on the side lines waiting for a pull back so that I can go long. Google may not have a pull back until $700. That said if you put on this position don't be greedy. If you see good appreciation sell them or at least sell enough of them to finish the trade with house profits. As for me I think that I will wait until Monday to make any trading decisions.

    • The only way far, far out of the money options make any sense is for a very short term earnings pop.

      You have to be betting on earnings coming well in over median estimates, which is 3.78. I think they will come in over 4.00, maybe 4.10-4.15. That should pop the stock price friday and the following week, which is when I'd be thinking of selling.

      Options that far out will almost certainly expire worthless, and in fact will get darn close to worthless at the first sign of any slowing of the stock climb, will go down even if the stock doesn't, since the volatility or "hope" premium will then decline quickly.

      With this strategy Nov's might be better if they're sig. cheaper at the strike.

      But I basically agree with your first answerer that something more like at least the 700's would be wiser. Personally I usually prefer a considerably more conservative strategy with deeply in the money calls.

      Whatever you do don't hold onto deeply out of the money calls for long.

    • Very very bad idea

    • Seems like a bit of a stretch, trading Google options that far outside the money is quite risky. You run a very high risk of the option value going to 0. Look at the greeks for this option, the probablity is quite low. I would move in to atleast $700. Trading options in Goog might seem easy until you bet the wrong way, use a tight stop-loss.

      Good Luck!

767.04+24.44(+3.29%)Dec 1 4:00 PMEST