Spanish Bonds struggling, Italy bonds poor...Europe having a drag on the world economy for the next several months...market should not be up this much with this kind of drag...overbought. We will see corrections starting tomorrow with Google and much of the rest of the market during the next 2-3 months.
My best is we see a $50 down day tomorrow too...but $90 is not out of the realm...a $550 stock price is about where Google should be if the earnings are so-so.
Apple and Facebook are just eating Googles lunch...very tough competitive environment and buying MOTOROLA is just an anchor on slower growth rates for Google. Never mind they missed 2 out of the last 4 quarters and the stock went down 8% (about $55 down from todays price).
So I don't like to reward companies that are so inconsistent and do not have a super outlook.
A $90 move would be more than 13%. Over the past few years, that's happened only once. In light of expectations for the macro economy as a whole this quarter, its improbable that Google is going to have that type of earnings beat. It could happen, but I personally would not bet on it.
Here are my 2c. The option market dictates GOOG's earnings forcast (historically anyway). I've been following GOOG since it IPO's made money, and got burned. Historically GOOGs earning have been timed (coincidentally with option expo, Hmmm? Makes you think) this year option expo, appears not a match, maybe a sign of HONEST dealings, who knows, BUT using history as a measure, the call options that have been high volume with high open interest is where the stock trades to after earnings. As of 129pm I see 650-670 is where people are betting the stock goes/settles by next Friday, keep in mind this bet is that above these numbers longs lose stock. Earnings on GOOG 5yrs ago the stock would move 40-70bucks, today not so much. BUT it will move 10-20, so the market is doing better figuring this thing out. From a charting perspective 625 is the floor for now, and 660 is resistance, for now. IF earnings push the stock over 660, then 660 becomes the floor and it goes higher, if now and it trades under 625, then 580 is to 200dy MA and this will be the floor. So, you have you range happy hunting. I'm not long nor short, and hold no options.
I am a new investor in the stock market and recently bought a stock mutual fund with aapl and google as the major holding.
I find that the shorts lie a lot. Nothing they say can be verified because it is not accurate.
The longS are very honest and they give information which can be easily verified.
SHALOM TO THE LONGS!