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Identiv, Inc. Message Board

  • Investor_Stud Investor_Stud May 28, 1998 2:26 PM Flag


    You may be right about some of the volume (5K+
    block trades) being from institutions. But ask yourself
    who? If you bought in orignally at $13 (IPO) and it is
    now at $60+, why not sell out 1/3 of your holdings to
    go ahead of the game and pay off your original
    investment, then hold onto the rest LONG TERM as you will now
    be able to comfortably (you already made your return
    and even if the stock dropped to $1, everything you
    would sell would still be profit at $1).

    If you
    bought in at $60-61, you are NOT going to dump it
    immediately because of a fluctuation that seems to not have
    any NEWS behind it. I still bet the price will settle
    in the $60+ range, and then will climb or fall
    depending on news. If it is good, it will climb again to
    the $70 range. If it is bad, I don't see it going
    much lower unless it is REALLY bad news (ie. the
    company is bankrupt).

    Your thoughts?

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    • Playboy Stud,

      Excuse my ignorance, but you
      said:"If you bought in orignally at $13 (IPO) and it is
      now at $60+, why not sell out 1/3 of your

      I would say why not SELL all of your holdings & buy
      others that are more undervalued. I can point you to a
      few tens of companies that are very attractive &
      undervalued. No one is insane enough to have bought this at
      $60+ for the hype, unless the guys is out of his mind
      about reality of SCMM.

      If you mistakenly bought
      in at $60+, I would say you got into a wrong thing.
      No one is out of reality paying for it at the
      current price, not talking about $60+. It would make more
      sense to get rid of it & minimize your loss

      I don't see the "LONG TERM". Can you point out why
      an investor should pay for SCMM at $20+?

      • 2 Replies to Convex69
      • Smart Cards, There will be more than 70B sold in
        2002. The ratio of cards to readers today is about
        300:1. It will be 3:1 by that time. This is VERY big
        business, and SCM is the leader! In addition, Digital Set
        Top Boxes cannot be capitalized by the content
        providers at $300 per replacement unit (60M in the US
        alone)so they need to go with a generic box and only
        capitalize the security module. SCM is the leader in this
        market and technology. Finally, digital media is a
        significantly growing trend. It is estimated that personal
        cameras etc. will no longer use film by 2005. How many
        cameras are sold each year? SCM is the leader in this
        market as well. This means 3 significant markets, any
        one of which could allow SCM to be a 200M company in
        2-3 years, more than justifying a $60+ price. This is
        the story I believe allowed the investor community to
        absorb 3M shares at $60+! These investors are NOT
        stupid! You should ask yourself, "What do they know that
        I do NOT know".

        Also, if you bought a stock
        you think will grow tremendously, and others agree by
        driving the price up, why would you sell all of your
        holdings? You simply make your money, and sit on the rest.
        If it goes up, you win big. If it goes down, you are
        already ahead of the game and you still make more money.
        You have nothing to lose, so you risk nothing. Why do
        you invest, only for the short term? If so, then you
        have missed a tremendous amount of investment growth
        over the last several years!

      • Shorted this stock today at 58 as a hedge against
        some of my long positions. PE at 90+ seems a bit
        excessive to me. Pretty new at this shorting idea, would
        sincerely appreciate any advice anyone more familiar with
        this stock might have as to an ultimate bottom target
        and buy stop.


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