You may be right about some of the volume (5K+ block trades) being from institutions. But ask yourself who? If you bought in orignally at $13 (IPO) and it is now at $60+, why not sell out 1/3 of your holdings to go ahead of the game and pay off your original investment, then hold onto the rest LONG TERM as you will now be able to comfortably (you already made your return and even if the stock dropped to $1, everything you would sell would still be profit at $1).
If you bought in at $60-61, you are NOT going to dump it immediately because of a fluctuation that seems to not have any NEWS behind it. I still bet the price will settle in the $60+ range, and then will climb or fall depending on news. If it is good, it will climb again to the $70 range. If it is bad, I don't see it going much lower unless it is REALLY bad news (ie. the company is bankrupt).
Excuse my ignorance, but you said:"If you bought in orignally at $13 (IPO) and it is now at $60+, why not sell out 1/3 of your holdings"
I would say why not SELL all of your holdings & buy others that are more undervalued. I can point you to a few tens of companies that are very attractive & undervalued. No one is insane enough to have bought this at $60+ for the hype, unless the guys is out of his mind about reality of SCMM.
If you mistakenly bought in at $60+, I would say you got into a wrong thing. No one is out of reality paying for it at the current price, not talking about $60+. It would make more sense to get rid of it & minimize your loss now.
I don't see the "LONG TERM". Can you point out why an investor should pay for SCMM at $20+?
Smart Cards, There will be more than 70B sold in 2002. The ratio of cards to readers today is about 300:1. It will be 3:1 by that time. This is VERY big business, and SCM is the leader! In addition, Digital Set Top Boxes cannot be capitalized by the content providers at $300 per replacement unit (60M in the US alone)so they need to go with a generic box and only capitalize the security module. SCM is the leader in this market and technology. Finally, digital media is a significantly growing trend. It is estimated that personal cameras etc. will no longer use film by 2005. How many cameras are sold each year? SCM is the leader in this market as well. This means 3 significant markets, any one of which could allow SCM to be a 200M company in 2-3 years, more than justifying a $60+ price. This is the story I believe allowed the investor community to absorb 3M shares at $60+! These investors are NOT stupid! You should ask yourself, "What do they know that I do NOT know".
Also, if you bought a stock you think will grow tremendously, and others agree by driving the price up, why would you sell all of your holdings? You simply make your money, and sit on the rest. If it goes up, you win big. If it goes down, you are already ahead of the game and you still make more money. You have nothing to lose, so you risk nothing. Why do you invest, only for the short term? If so, then you have missed a tremendous amount of investment growth over the last several years!
Shorted this stock today at 58 as a hedge against some of my long positions. PE at 90+ seems a bit excessive to me. Pretty new at this shorting idea, would sincerely appreciate any advice anyone more familiar with this stock might have as to an ultimate bottom target and buy stop.