I'm considering going all in on this one.
Maybe 10-20k dollars buying Puts.
I believe that CRM will see a sharp decline and I also think it's possible that it will get crushed.
I'm new to options but I know the power of them when combined with a decline in the stock.
Maybe down deep i wasn't totally convinced GMCR wouldn'ta run back to high 70's but the play was puts if I was to play that.
However it doesnt matter much. I have deposited 25k into TD Waterhouse and as of right now I intend on buying Puts this Thursday or if it spikes.
I want to hit this so bad and if I dont ten I lose 25k but if the PIG gets slaughtered then I'm gonna core big
Am I missing something????
It really doesn't matter.
I just like thge idea of CRM being the latest victim of the HIGH PE Curse and want to really smash one out of the park.
I'm going to roll the die and post my confirmation when I pull the trigger. We shall see.
The only thing that will change my mind is if I think CRM has pulled out some magic.
you want a home run? and your super bear? they you should SELL the november 130/140 call spread (collecting about 3.50) and use the proceeds to BUY the november 130/120 put spread. Then you only need the earnings MISS to send the stock down 8% to hit a grand slam, making 1000s of percent for only small drop in the stock!!!
So if I buy the Dec 140 Calls and the Dec 115 Puts ahead of earnings
My potential on the 140 Calls is less then the puts but heck a strong move up and I could see a big return.
The puts will only cost me $10,500 and the calls would be $11,600
Don't we expect a BIG enough move that this could at the very least break even and the upside on the 115 Puts is tremendous
I never said that. If I bought Dec 115 puts at 5.05 that would be $550 per contract. If I bought 20 contracts that would be a little over 10 G
The closer it moves to115 the more my options are worth..
so, if I'm reading this correctly, you want to pay about $1 per option (25,000 for $25000) which means you have to go way deep out of the money, both up and down, to get them. There is no element of safety there because you're looking at about a $50 spread to keep that dollar amount. I don't think it will move that much, at least not immediately.
All sensible people on this stock are short, imo
I was short GMCR and OPEN since May and I (told myself I) was mentally prepared for both stock prices to double. Fortuneately I didn't have to go through that test.
If you are even asking anyone their opinion on what a stock price will do in the short term (a few months) then you have the wrong mentality.
So tho I'm short CRM today I'm prepared for the stock price to go to $250 from here, who knows where Mr. Market will take it?!
I don't generally like puts cause its such a short term bet.
You gotta have a set of micro polished brass plated tempered stainless steel balls for this type of bet. Your (and my) words don't mean jack, only actions will dictate if you (or I) have what it takes.
And it sounds contradictory, But having said that, don't be afraid to change your mind if the *facts* change.
The bottom line, the price must be multiples of what it is worth. If you can't figure out what it is worth, stay the hell away from shorting. Good luck.
I would have done it on GMCR if I would have been approved for Options trading. I had never tried and after seeing what happened to GMCR I decided enough is enough.
I shorted GMCR and made 5k If I would have bought puts I would be sitting fat right now.
I have the mentality to take risk where others aren't willing.
Bottomline, Do you think CRM is going to see a move to the downside based oln earnings or not???
Opinion please and be honest
Ok So what are the boards expectations going into earnings?
Do we expect a miss or CRM bbeating numbers but losing some of the growth numbers that have propelled them to this point??
It just seems that these guys r ready to drop and I'm willing to put my $$$ on the line here if I believe that there is a strong chance it's going to happen now.