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  • jkanalysis jkanalysis May 11, 2012 6:00 PM Flag


    Whitney Tilson went shorts Nflx at $80 in 2010. Nflx went to $125 and he REITERATED his short thesis. And then Nflx went to $155 - and Whitney Tilson reitierated his short thesis. And then Nflx went to $186 - and Whitney Tilson reiterated his short thesis. AND THEN - Nflx went to $205.00 - AND - guess what - Whitney Tilson came on 'fast money' and said "enough" , and he exitted the trade. OK, not the worst thing that he could have done at that point. BUT - the saga continues. Nflx then went to $250 - no action from Whitney T. Nflx then went to $287 - no action from Whitney T. Nflx then went to $304 (Goldman updraded, Morgan upgraded, JP Morgan upgraded , and each with price increases), but NO ACTION from Whitney T. Then Nflx starting pulling back , and back , and back. And on the first day that it closed below the 50 day avg , around beginning of August 2011 at $247, when it should have been obvious to anyone that could read a chart that "the stock was broken", Whitney T did nothing. Personally, I started loading up on puts then. Finally, the stock dropped hard, then harder, then had some dumb rebound from around $103 to $125, and then ...... it CRASHED TO $69.00. When Nflx hit $76 , Whitney Tilson came on tv and said, "yeah , yeah, yeah, I should have either stayed short, or after exitting short position, I should have reshorted at a higher price, but but but but I didn't, but NOW is the time to buy Nflx". OK, so he did. And final chapter - Nflx almost doubled in 3 months (another thing you see only at parabolic tipping points of markets - the weakest stocks running up the most from depressed levels, ie shld, nflx, rimm, crm - along with the most powerful stocks , aapl/pcln making 'blowoff tops' ). So with Nflx basically doubling, what did Whitney Tilson do - he came on tv and stated he was 'adding to Nflx at around $125 because it was going much higher. Can I sum it up for you - he is clueless. He says "short" , it goes up, he says buy and hold, it goes down. He will eventually get a trade right (he did nail the oversold bottom of BP), but heck , one day, amazing as it may seem, even cramer might get a pick right. All this typing to say - THINK FOR YOURSELVES people. We don't need these tv puppets opinions, they ARE ALWAYS talking their own books., just like warren buffet, the "fake great american" who just talks his own book. CRM will be lucky to avoid insolvency during the next 5 years.

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    • JK, I concur with 98% of all the things you post including the Buffett deification BS


      AND OUR HIGH TREASON CRIMINALS RULERS HAVE SOLD USA 99% INHABITANTS AS LAMB AND SHEEP TO THE BANKSTER SLAUGHTER CAMPS blogs/ezra-klein/post/occupy- the-regulatory-system/2012/04/ 27/gIQAjo21lT_blog.html
      Red Alert in USA

      You CROOKS hold up shell companies(HEDGE FUNDS) for the sole purpose of looting retirement accounts you will face prosecution from angry Mobs in 2013. The show is almost over.MAY30, 2012
      The SEC is clueless and was designed to be so. It is blind to financial derivatives and has strict orders to leave the Big Boys alone
      Facebook IPO: CIA and Goldman Sachs Take the Suckers for a Stroll

    • LOL
      Is really unable to get its SG&A in line with its business churn and growth; was its notorious spending on an expensive San Francisco campus only to bag it and lease even more relatively expensive space a one-time management waste of capital or a smart positioning for the future? The growth investor has a tougher choice but with sexier growth. The value investor has an easier time evaluating the downside

    • Just wait till it blows throught the 200 day mva this week, with the market conditions now, we can see $80 and $50 by end of june

      • 2 Replies to tigequeen
      • has been able to maintain such a high price off of high institutional ownership (96%) and a shortage of stocks that are fully invested in the cloud. The top six institutional shareholders (FMR, Sands Capital Management, Jennison Associates, Vanguard, State Street, and Baillie Gifford) own about 37% of outstanding shares and the CEO, Mark Beinoff, has owned as much as 10 million shares, and tends to sell off shares in mass quantities. The market has had relatively little access to the stock, and this has been keeping prices artificially high.

      • For many investors, the question is no longer if shares are overvalued, but a matter of when they are going to come back down to Earth. This will happen once institutional owners back out of their positions. Salesforce's largest institutional owner is Fidelity, which owns 20.2 million shares or about 14.7 percent of the company.



    • Beat or not beat

      the entire fraud street criminal financial terrorists players are trapped with holding crm bubble fraud

      it will be stampede crash , when they try to exit this bubble

      retail should only buy long term not play short term

      and do not borrow any scam bubble shares to short.......................

      fmr corp along has 20 million plus shares: how will they exit?lol

      classic trap............

      but retail can not fight criminal financial terrorist near term.........

      crm ...........bubble can bust any time ina stampede next

      red alert in usa

    • The point of the message was to encourage people to read the charts and not take statements/positions from tv personalities (and lack of a personalty in cramer's case) at face value, not to in any way compare nflx business with crm's business, which btw, doesn't compare. As poor as nflx' outlook is, it grandly superceeds Crm's. And nflx current stock price compared to it's valuation is within this stratosphere (though if it's business keeps declining , ie the "E" in p/e, then it would be due for much further downside). CRM on the other hand, has NO earnings and NO earnings in site for at least the next year, and it's price isn't $1.37, it's $137.00. And don't begin to preach about crm's "growth prospects", the company has 3 billion dollars in current revenue, that's it, though it sports a market cap still above 18 billion with major player's having taken positions in their field within the last year. There is NOTHING about this company at the current stock price , or even at half of the current stock price, that doesn't scream "CATASTROPHE".

    • nflx isn't insolvent.

      I never understood why nflx was so overvalued for renting DVDs, especially after what happened to the videotape rental industry just a few years earlier. MOMO and nothing else I guess.

      I agree that there are TA similarities of nflx with CRM. The problem with TA is, over a five-year time, fundamentals (and unforeseen events) drive prices.

      The fundamental differences nflx vs crm ?
      No "stickiness" for the customers vs very high costs to switch.
      All providers have same quality (a DVD in the mail or a bitstream) vs the top-quality product with lots of differentiation.
      No moat (if you could buy some DVDs, you could rent them out, my library does) vs multi-billion-dollar moat (for data centers worldwide, offices worldwide, hiring worldwide, development of high-reliability highly-integrated high-function-points software).
      The replacement technology (streaming websites) already was in place vs none in sight yet.
      The product was discretionary consumer goods, vs critical IT for businesses.
      A saturated market vs a market that has barely started to grow.

      And how can CRM get insolvent? they cannot spend it as fast as they shovel it into the pile! (I do wish they would stop trying, though.)

    • Singh, thanks for the information, especially the Nuance connection to the CFO. The chart (along with the overall market's chart) suggests the stock is on the immediate verge of a total implosion, And, in my vocabulary, $30.00 does not come close to the definition of "a total implosion" for a $137 stock.

    • Whitney is in Bed with Criminal thug Reed Hastings and used as Trojan horse to trap shorts and longs..

      REED HASTINGS (Microsoft Board OF director) crook passed on BKS tip on Friday to W.Tilson
      Tilson was short BKS and after getting the insider information crook covered short and went long
      Monday BKS and Microsoft deal announced and BKS stock opens 100% higher

      Rest you all know what happened?

      Technology Cross Ventures/ Reed Hastings/Barry McCarthy scam gang connected all the way to OBAMA gang in white house and total scam protection provided by S.E.C. to keep fraud loot in Billions going strong without any fear


      my WEB PAGE

      • 1 Reply to singhlion2001
      • Oh, btw, Singh. Remember that final move I mentioned in Nflx from $286 to $304, when MS, GS, and JPM raised all their price targets and reitered their "strong buys" on Nflx - the reason- Reed Hastings was elected to the Facebook board of directors to provide the final last days' blowoff top to Nflx. And when did Reed Hastings sell the major majority of his Nflx shares and aquire the major majority of his personal wealth ????? The real criminals in this country are not behind bars. But I'm quite sure , I'm not telling you anything you don't know.

    • So you're saying people who show up on tv are wrong as much as anyone else?

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