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  • everfoxy everfoxy May 1, 2013 5:53 PM Flag


    . CRM has already announced they expect increasing losses. Besides all the equity awards that go to insiders, CRM has gone into debt. Debt plus no GAAP earnings for a 10+ year old company, increased numbers of shares as shares are issued to insiders (unlike the positive effects of companies that buy back stock), the continued need to buy companies to try to get any growth, and many other negative fundamental aspects of CRM overshadow the bravado and pumping that are emphasized on dips. This pump has come just before CRM broke down severely. It will turn out to be a lower high that just delays the breakdown, but doesn't stymie it.

    BTW, when Cramer mentions a stock had a good day on average volume, he ignores any exterior factors that have nothing to do with fundamentals. The last time Cramer mentioned CRM positively it was around 187 pre-split. The pre-split equivalent price today was in the 166 area. The stock price is still broken regardless of today's pumps and bounces. Earlier this year, there was selling after bounces. Today's bounce will disappear and CRM will resume going down to the break down point.

    I was correct on April 26 when I posted that CRM could rise to 41+. My timing was off when I said that bounce. Though the bounce wasn't erased late tonight, the stock price will reverse to the downside. It's possible that downside volume could be heavier.

    It remains interesting that the daily volume reports have been multiplied to match the 4 to 1 split, but the report of the number of insider shares sold during the past six months hasn't been corrected by multiplying it by 4. Insiders have sold over 4 million of shares (based on the split price) over the past 6 months. I've noticed insiders have sold shares regularly as they get paid in stock and sell the stock to get the money. Giving stock to insiders and then having the insiders sell the stock at market prices for the stock makes it appear there's cash flow, (from longs).

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    • At this time of year, in this market, and with so much territory below where CRM closed today, there's likely to be more pressure on longs to sell than on shorts to cover. Pumping didn't prevent CMI and other stocks with real GAAP earnings from falling. CRM is more vulnerable because there are no GAAP earnings and even insiders admit that. RVBD fell to 40 (despite large, prominent investment companies and mutual funds owned significant numbers of shares) and then dipped into the 20's before going under 20 even during a bull market. Now that CRM stock has split and the stock hovers just over 41, there's a lot of ground below. The descent for CRM could be much faster than the descent for RVBD, partly because of market factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors.

      Have a good night.

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