I say $5 since that's where max pain is pinned. Do we go up from there during the day? No irrational exuberance please. I hate that.
IMHO, it is going to be $1.50 cash + $2.00-$2.50 approx. speculative assigned value placed by investors/analysts pending possible fda approval/disapproval = $3.50-$4.00. We will see how it plays out tomorrow.
The gap will fill, at the very least. Logic says that the price SHOULD go back to where it was before the "negative" news of a negative panel review caused MELA to go down because today it was replaced by a positive panel vote!
However, there will be some die hard stubborn shorts that will not cover regardless, so I see this as filling the gap then possibly moving slowly up to the $8 range.
Regardless, it will go up, no question about that, I have traded these bios like DNDN and HGSI, people know what positive votes are worth now, however close they might be.
hgsi got a very positive vote the other day and traded down 4 points
and its a 2+ billion drug someday
mela is small time...and the panel was not an overwhemling positive by any means. if you don't believe me look at the ceo quotes. look at the fda panel asking for more studies
you could be lucky to get out in the 4s tommorow
again, look at hgsi
The charts are showing a structure of around $7 on the low side, around $10 mid range, and up to $14 possible peak.
Keep in mind, there is unusually high shorts here and they will have strong pressure to cover. the stock alone will recover up to $4-$5 on its own. But the key here is the huge short covering that could be a huge driving push probably early tomorrow.
I am going to be watching close, because I'm looking for the $9 to $12 area to realistically spike.
After the shorts cover, it will proabable settle around the $6-$7 area.
It should be extremely crazy volume with huge pushes.
But it is for sure this will be opening much higher and running like crazy tomorrow.
I plan to sell tomorrow and take a very nice profit for being in only a couple of days.
Simple rule of thumb, don't get greedy.
This stock still has obstacles, but was a great buy at this level and now they have several positive options with the panel decision.
You have to have a lot of buyers. Those will likely be almost entirely daytraders who want to get a pop and get out. There would have to be short covering, and shorts aren't going to cover on this news. Any long term investors already know about this company and were the ones holding at 2.53 today. Why would new ones come in (other than daytraders) on what essentially amounts to a split decision, and glaringly bad sentiment from the FDA, the only people who matter from here on out? It just doesn't make sense that a ton of new long term buyers would step in just because it "passed" by one vote that was made possible because one person abstained from voting at all. (which clearly means they have their doubts about it).
Look I'm not short. I was long for quite a while, but sold before the FDA docs were released because I felt it wasn't going to be good. I held on to some puts I had that were protecting my long position, so in that regard, I'm "short" at this point, but I would buy back in in a heartbeat if I thought good things lied ahead. I was all for the company getting this approved, but things started stacking up and I got bearish on it. No matter what happens (I personally think it sees mid-4's at best tomorrow and then comes moving back down in a hurry) the FDA will require more testing. The writing is on the wall there. And that means more dilution, and more waiting, and people get impatient, and don't want their money tied up in a company that the FDA seems to have major issues with. The risk/reward in the near term is just not great enough to bring in loads of new true longs, imo. If I thought so, I'd be happy to go long first thing in the morning, and I'm not going to because day traders are going to play this thing hard tomorrow.
If you are long and love the company and it's prospects now, your staying long anyway. But be realistic about the coming months ahead...they will be choppy to say the least.
The "news" today is not entirely positive; it's a step in the right direction. Still some hoops to pass over.
The stock "should" go higher, but at a level under $7 (short term). Problem is, no demand, and stock will stay right where it is...something has to give.
Guys, nobody wants to own a stock that is doomed for DENIAL and going to take MONTHS of NEW TESTS.
The only pop you will see is daytraders like me who will take QUICK profits as we compete to sell with the longs who will also want to sell.
As soon as this tops, it's over and headed straight down. Smart longs will consider this a birthday gift to get out with a little little bit more cash.
It won't be much. Open under $3.
i bought HGSI and DNDN at 2.50 -3
my advice is to sell any abrnormal pop premarket or right at the open...
if you actually read the live blog and reviews of went down today it is NOT that bullish at all. they even quote the CEO as being frustrated at the panel. ignore what the company says...look at what the FDA saw and said. the saw many negative things and voted a split deciciion basically...1 person had abstained on question. they were ALL in agreement on new studies
so go look at mela market cap and cash they have...there is major dilution going to happen on any pop because if FDA says no its going to pennies. if fda agrees with panel on new studies ala what they DID to arna...its massive dilution as well
either way...dilution is happening and WILL be in the hole. shorts got nothing to worry about really considering they shorted to high
you can always buy back in later. good luck