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MELA Sciences, Inc. Message Board

  • dwoods4q dwoods4q Aug 7, 2012 3:01 PM Flag

    GUIDANCE VS EARNINGS

    IMO after a day or week of repositioning the pps of MELA will start to grow if the guidance is favorable. Earnings are not anywhere near as important at this phase of a startup as the guidance will be. When management discusses the past couple of months people will be able to judge,due a proforma, that will establish a pps for the next few months. All of the noise I hear on this board is irrelevant, its what management has to say and how the MM boys react to it. As I have said before the keyboard didn't replace the pen but rather supplements it. I believe with time MELA will do the same with biopsies.
    One way or another tomorrow will be a new dawn.

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    • You do realize that there is unlikely to be anything approaching formal guidance, right? MELA Management is unlikely to be giving formal guidance in the form of estimating revenues, eps, units or utilization, beyond the already mentioned targets (200 US, 75 German, with a goal of 1 per hour per system placed. If we're lucky they will reiterate that they are on track to meet the placement numbers. If not they will hedge on those numers. If we're lucky they will give some specific examples where utilization is doing well, but don't look for any overall avergage utilization number. Teh problem is that most of the above information is not news, they have already said these things. In the absence of news, the current qtr revs, eps and burn rate will be major drivers over the short term.

      Will it matter what they say and how they say it beyond the current qtrs rev numbers? Absolutely, but that has already been said.

      What will make a difference is whether they say anything that is really considered news. For some it will be news that they remain on track, but I I'm afraid there is a larger audience that will consider it news if they come in way under estimates, which is not all that unlikely.

      What I am wondering is what assumptions are the analysts making that we are not? They have the same information that we have and perhaps even more? It would sure be interesting to know what is built into those high estimates? Perhaps there is something we are overlooking?

      • 1 Reply to fish_discover_water_last
      • Agreed. My take is management needs to be more specific. They now have data from the last 90 days to share ie number of machines in use,number of cards used,number of orders, etc,etc. Guidance should be based on facts and projections going forward. I have long known that success will be judged on how management handles the financial info and marketing of it as well as the product. The markets tolerance is running thin. We need strong and decisive direction here on out IMO

 
MELA
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