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MELA Sciences, Inc. Message Board

  • aequitas45 aequitas45 Oct 16, 2012 3:55 PM Flag

    Melafind served notice to shorts to cover

    IMHO with the announcement of purchase order agreements totaling 3.9 million dollars, Melafind management is serving notice to all shorts to cover because this is no toy and the company will reach 275 units in operation by the end of Q1 2013 or sooner. The question now is how often are these units being used. I believe early units are going to the higher usage locations. The usage number will continue to be projected near or at 8 times a day. This is necessary not only to quickly pay for the units but to give the analysts good numbers to make their projections. As analysts always discount what they hear, a usage factor of 8 will be converted to an average of 4 a day. That’s probably right once market saturation is achieved. A market penetration number of 3000 units will be discounted to 1500. But even a usage of 4 times a day on 1500 units produces 1.60 per share income. The analyst will apply a multiple of 10 or maybe a lot more if they consider Melafind’s growth potential beyond the USA and Germany. Run the numbers, this is looking like a gift.

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    • Aequ ... Good stuff ... This is the kind of quick math that scares the crap out of shorts! The multiple will be much greater than 10 it looks like a gift that will keep on giving ... Good thing the smart money has closed their short positions ;))

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Aequitas
      Excellent post. The company is progressing much faster then the pps.
      regards endo

    • samhasson Oct 16, 2012 4:19 PM Flag

      Thanks Aequitas for shedding light in an arena that needs cleansing. But even if your analysis is correct, which is still positive on a conservative basis, why would analysts discount by a factor of 50% on a report that is verifiable? That's a rhetorical question. You need not answer it. I know it's a long time in coming, but I personally can hardly wait for GP approval.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to samhasson
      • " I know it's a long time in coming, but I personally can hardly wait for GP approval."

        Agree, that would be a good thing Sam however, I believe that it needs to be well established in the field before we cross that bridge. In addition, with 10,000 Derms in the US, 5,000 in Germany and other countries in Europe, Australia, Japan, Brazil, etc., it will more than keep MELA pre-occupied for some time to come.

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